Fraedrich, Eva

Kolarova, Viktoriya

Lenz, Barbara

Trommer, Stefan

Institute of Transport Research:Publications

Exploring user expectations on autonomous drivingStefan Trommer, Eva Fraedrich & Viktoriya Kolarova (DLR, Germany)Qualitative methods allow:• to explore a fairly unknown topic,• flexibility, using semi-structured methods,• to elaborate in greater detail,• the study participants to express their attitudes/opinions/etc. more freely and in their own words,• interaction between the researcher and the study participant –being able to ask “why?” or “how?”.Results from qualitative studies can give input to develop quantitative studies or to make assumptions plausible e.g. input parameter for transport modelsQualitative methods in the field of autonomous vehicle research> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 2Exploration and structuring of “acceptance”• Aimed at laying a solid foundation for future empirical research• Qualitative study on online user comments in GER and US in 2013 (Villa Ladenburg) Exploration and quantification of user perspectives• General perception, interest, willingness to use, changes in mode choice, VOT, etc.• Representative, quantitative study of 1,000 Germans in 2014 (HU Berlin, FU Berlin, DLR)Examination of impact on mobility in different countries• VOT, new user groups, changes in mode choice• Comparative, mixed-method study using focus groups, expert workshops and quantitative modelling (ifmo)From exploration to investigation> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 3http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978‐3‐662‐48847‐8https://www.geographie.hu‐berlin.de/de/institut/publikationsreihen/arbeitsberichte/download/Arbeitsberichte_Heft_187.pdf“Impact of automation technologies on mobility”Project overview> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 4Analysis of the impact of automation on mobility behaviour • Investigate intended use and influencing factors of user acceptance • Develop scenarios of automation for 2035• Derive changes in modal split and vehicle miles travelled (VMT)Focus• automation levels 4 & 5 (SAE):• private passenger transport• three countries: USA, China, GermanyPartners: Stanford University & Tongji University (Shanghai, China)Mix of qualitative and quantitative methods> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 5Technical and legal issuesUser groupsScenarios Vehicle fleetsMode choiceFocus groups Scenario workshops Fleet modelTravel demand modelExpert workshopsExpert interviewsImpact of automation on mobility behaviorDiscuss aspects of autonomous technologies with experts in their field covering the following aspects:• Technology challenges and necessary infrastructure developments (e.g. maturity of technologies, roadmaps and role of V2X infrastructure)• Legal aspects (legal and liability aspects and expected timeframe for legalization of level 4 & 5 systems)• From early adopters to mass market (e.g. user segments, roll out strategies and market adoption) • Impact of automated driving systems on the transport system (mode choice, VMT and AVoD systems)Three workshops during Spring 2015 in San Francisco, Shanghai and BerlinExpert workshops and interviews> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 6Source: DLRObjective:• Analyze drivers and barriers to use AVs• Potential application of AVs• Potential changes in mobility behaviorContent and implementation:• Three user groups (mobility impaired, urban and rural dwellers) • Block 1 (40 min) “daily mobility”• mobility requirements, mode choice, role of the car within the household)• Block 2 (60 min) “Autonomous driving”• Knowledge, expectations, associations• Potential use cases of autonomous driving• 3 x 3 focus groups during Spring and Summer 2015 in San Francisco, Shanghai and BerlinFocus groups> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 7Source: thecarconnection.comSource: rinspeed.comSource: gas2.orgIntended use and benefit of autonomous vehicles> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 8Germany U.S. ChinaIntended useLong distance CommuteShort tripsAccompanying tripsRecreational tripsLong distance CommuteAccompanying tripsShort tripsRecreational tripsCommuteShort tripsLong distance tripsAccompanying tripsExpected benefit„time saving“Less stressHigher safetyDoor2door mobilityComfortEfficiencyComfort„time saving“EfficiencyLess stressHigher safety„Drink & Drive“„time saving“PrivacyLess stressHigher safetyComfortEfficiencySource: DLRGermany U.S. ChinaLoss of driving pleasureRisk of malfunctionLoss of controlData security/ cybersecurityMore carsHigher costs„Speed Limit“Risk of malfunctionLoss of controlHigher costsLoss of driving pleasure„Speed Limit“Data security/ cybersecurityMore carsHigher costsLoss of controlLoss of driving pleasureRisk of malfunctionConcerns connected to the use of AVs> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 9Source: DLRFocus groups allowed to evaluate benefits and potential use of AVs for different user groups within different countries.Qualitative approach was key for discussion of potential changes in mobility behavior:• Knowledge about AVs within the focus group was very limited• Discussion allowed to generate a mutual understanding• Understanding is prerequisite to evaluate potential utilization of AVsDifficulties:• Methods had to be adapted for China – less discussion more monologuesResults were used to evaluate and adapt assumptions used in transport modelling to analyze the impact of AVs on mobility behavior in the U.S. and GER Tonight’s poster session: Poster 18Résumé and outlook> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 10Stefan TrommerGerman Aerospace Center (DLR)Institute of Transport ResearchBerlin (Germany)stefan.trommer@dlr.deLooking forward to an exciting workshop!> Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving > Stefan Trommer  > July 19, 2016DLR.de  •  Chart 11

Exploring user expectations on autonomous driving

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