The aim of this paper is to analyze if the effectiveness of the inspection procedures in the organic certification is conditioned by measurable structural and managerial factors under control of organic control bodies (CBs), and if there is scope for possible improvements. The analysis is based on data from the archives of the largest Italian organic CB, containing information on operators’ characteristics, including a qualitative discrete risk score defined by the CB, inspectors’ characteristics, type of inspection and the outcome of the inspection, in terms of noncompliance detected and sanctions imposed. The aim is to analyze factors that could make an inspection more effective. Our measure of effectiveness is the number of detected noncompliance per inspection visit. No specific literature on this issue is available, therefore on the basis of available information we develop a set of hypothesis concerning measurable factors that might have an effect on the effectiveness of the inspections. Discrete choice models are used to estimate the likelihood of noncompliance conditional to a set of covariates concerning risk assessment of the operators, inspectors characteristics, and modalities of the inspections. Different models and their distributional assumptions are discussed and tested. Results show that there is scope for an increase of effectiveness of inspections, and the particular relevance of two factors: samples taken during the inspection and timing of the visit are confirmed as significant factors increasing the likelihood of both slight and severe noncompliance
