Managing pregnancy of unknown location based on initial serum progesterone and serial serum hCG: development and validation of a two-step triage protocol.
A uniform rationalized management protocol for pregnancies of unknown location (PUL) is lacking. We developed a two-step triage protocol based on presenting serum progesterone (step 1) and hCG ratio two days later (step 2) to select PUL at high-risk of ectopic pregnancy (EP).Cohort study of 2753 PUL (301 EP), involving a secondary analysis of prospectively and consecutively collected PUL at two London-based university teaching hospitals. Using a chronological split we used 1449 PUL for development and 1304 for validation. We aimed to select PUL as low-risk with high confidence (high negative predictive value, NPV) while classifying most EP as high-risk (high sensitivity). The first triage step selects low-risk PUL at presentation using a serum progesterone threshold. The remaining PUL are triaged using a novel logistic regression risk model based on hCG ratio and initial serum progesterone (second step), defining low-risk as an estimated EP risk <5%.On validation, initial serum progesterone ≤2nmol/l (step 1) selected 16.1% PUL as low-risk. Second step classification with the risk model M6P selected an additional 46.0% of all PUL as low-risk. Overall, the two-step protocol classified 62.1% of PUL as low-risk, with an NPV of 98.6% and a sensitivity of 92.0%. When the risk model was used in isolation (i.e. without the first step), 60.5% of PUL were classified as low-risk with 99.1% NPV and 94.9% sensitivity.The two-step protocol can efficiently classify PUL into being at high or low risk of complications
