Presenter: Mike Muller, School of Governance, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
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Muller, Mike

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Colorado Law

University of Colorado Law School Colorado Law Scholarly Commons Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10) 2016 6-9-2016 SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from South Africa's Vaal System 'Problemshed' Mike Muller Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/coping-with-water-scarcity-in-river-basins-worldwide  Part of the African Studies Commons, Climate Commons, Comparative and Foreign Law Commons, Environmental Health and Protection Commons, Environmental Policy Commons, Hydrology Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Social Policy Commons, Sustainability Commons, Water Law Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Citation Information Muller, Mike, "SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from South Africa's Vaal System 'Problemshed'" (2016). Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10). https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/coping-with-water-scarcity-in-river-basins-worldwide/10 Reproduced with permission of the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment (formerly the Natural Resources Law Center) at the University of Colorado Law School. THE CONSTRUCTION OF WATER SCARCITY AND ITS MANAGEMENT SOME INSIGHTS FROM SOUTH AFRICA’SVAAL SYSTEM ‘PROBLEMSHED’Mike MullerSchool of Governance University of Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South AfricaSCARCITY – DETERMINANTS AND RESPONSES Physical scarcity  Variability induced economic scarcity Pollution, quality and scarcity Socially determined scarcity Operational determinants of scarcity Production, trade and the creation of scarcityVaal river system supports 60% SA’s economy, 40% population, well beyond sub-basin boundary MANAGING VARIABILITY FlowTimeReliable FlowReliable FlowMaximum flood flowMaximum flood flowManagement interventionsReliable  supplies = More investment, greater productivity Storage & links mitigate variability related scarcity(investment constraint = economic scarcity) 1890s local springs1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom1923 Vaal Barrage1938 Vaal Dam1982 Tugela-VaalEVOLUTION OF VAAL SYSTEM’S “FOOTPRINT”Investment mitigates local, physical, scarcitySterkfontein dam –1st major inter-basin transfer into Vaal system1890s local springs1902 Rand Water - Zuurbekom1923 Vaal Barrage1938 Vaal Dam1982 Tugela-Vaal1998 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1a2004 Lesotho Highlands Phase 1bEVOLUTION OF VAAL SYSTEM’S “FOOTPRINT”Next, the Zambezi?!2024 Lesotho Highlands Phase 2Existing Transfer SchemesProposed Transfer Schemes Mokolo CatchmentCrocodile CatchmentVaal CatchmentIntegrated Vaal River SystemPROBLEM-SHED NOT WATER-SHEDACID MINE DRAINAGE: POLLUTION TO BE TREATED OR RESOURCE FLOW TO BE MANAGED?LIABILITY, VIABILITY AND SUBSIDYPOLLUTION ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO SCARCITYACID MINE DRAINAGE - GOLD’S HERITAGE12OVERVIEW OF WATER QUALITY: SALINITY STATUSDouglasAucampshoopKalkfonteinRustfonteinTierpoortKrugerdrifBLOEMFONTEINLOWERVAALTweerivierKimberleyDouglas IncrementalLower HartsVaalhartsDe HoopTaungWentzelBarberspanSpitskopErfenisAllemanskraalSand Vet IncementalMIDDLEVAAL KlipbankBloemhof IncrementalRietspruitJohan NeserKlipdrifBoskopKlerkskraalRietfonteinKoppiesKromdraaiParysVAALBARRAGESuikerbosKliprivierBarrageIncrementalJOHANNESBURGDelangesdriftVaal Dam IncrementalUPPERVAALSterkfonteinFrankfortGrootdraaiStandertonChristianaVAALMakwesie KlerksdorpBloemhofVaalhartsWeirVS1VS2VS4VS5VS6VS7VS8VS16VS17VS18VS19VS20VS1  -  At origin at N17 bridgeLEGEND : LEVEL 1 POINTSVS2  -  At Camden (R29/N2 Bridge)VS3  -  At N11 Bridge to AmersfortVS4  -  At R35 Bloukop BridgeVS5  -  Grootdraai DamVS6  -  At Villiers Flood SectionVS7  -  Vaal Dam on Vaal River             (downstream weir)VS8  -  Vaal Barrage - near Barrage wallVS9  -  Vaal River at low water bridgeVS10 -  VermaasdriftVS11 -  MidvaalVS12 -  Orkney BridgeVS13 -  Regina weirVS14 -  BalkfonteinVS15 -  Bloemhof Dam (upstream)VS16 -  Bloemhof Dam (downstream weir)VS17  -  Vaalharts Barrage (downstream weir)VS18 -  Vaal River at De HoopVS19 -  SchmidtsdriftVS20 -  Douglas Barrage - near barrage wallVS3VS9VS11VS12VS13VS14VS15VS100100200300400500600700800900VS20 VS19 VS18 VS17 VS16 VS14 VS13 VS12 VS11 VS10 VS9 VS8 VS7 VS6 VS5 VS4 VS3 VS2 VS1Monitoring Point on Vaal River(Level 1)TDS (mg/l)RWQO (final proposed)  Grootdraai DamBloemhof DamDouglas BarrageVaal BarrageVaal DamRWQO (existing - at study initiation)  RWQO (workshop)  13SALINITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGYShort term actions:- Implement source controls Upgrade monitoring programme Feasibility of saline effluent (AMD) treatment Pilot waste discharge charges Dilution to keep TDS to 600 mg/LMedium/Long term Actions:- Implement saline effluent (AMD) treatment Implement waste discharge chargesUPSIDE OF ACID MINE DRAINAGE AMD only 15% of ‘salt’ pollution in Vaal But concentrated, point sources Cheaper to clean up than treating the river Or using scarce & expensive water for dilution Will also provide small additional supply streamPOLLUTION ALSO REFLECTS  CHANGING SOCIAL PRIORITIESSA’S ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVEUS$1900       SA hhld. inc. US$14400BlackmajorityWhite minorityUS$8000 (2002) ??Empirically, environmental priorities change with the income of the politically dominant groupClimate change:A future ‘source’ of scarcity?    6 3 2 5 4 7 9 8 SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONScenario 10(a)CCT WC/WDM strategy, thereafter selection based on a conservativselection of interventionsObjective: To determine the impact of selecting a “conservative portfolio”KEY FINDINGS•Supply interventions would have to be “fast tracked”.•To avoid “fast tracking” WC/WDM would have to be successfully implemented •Net present value of this option is R1 844 million   3 4 5 7 6 2 8 9 10 SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONScenario 10 (b)CCT WC/WDM strategy, thereafter selection based on a conservative selection ofinterventions including potential impacts of ecological Reserve and climatechangeObjective: To determine how the implementation of the Reserve and the potential forclimate change could impact on the selection of interventionsKEY FINDINGS•Supply interventions would have to be “fast tracked”.•Net present value of this option is R 4 477 million. •Cost impact of climate change and implementing the Reserve is approx R 2 633 millionLosses and leaks10 of these a year = R350 000Poor municipal management contributes t  scarcity POOR MUNICIPAL MANAGEMENT CONTRIBUTES TO SCARCITY  South African cities ‘lose’ 36.7% of its water? ‘non-revenue’ water Physical losses? Financial losses? Remedies:- Know your system Find and fix leaks Maintain infrastructure Identify and chase debtors (aka establish effective operating systems) Non revenue water programmes address scarcity SYSTEMIC IMPACT OF MUNICIPAL (AND OTHER) LOSSES IN VAALSCENARIO A• High water requirement scenario, no further water loss reduction, no reduction in water use due to WC/WDM.• Increasing irrigation water use continues until 2016. • Implement both Phase 2 of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (Polihali Dam) and the Thukela Water Project (Jana Dam and Mielietuin Dam )SCENARIO B• Unlawful irrigation water use eradicated in 2011 and controlled thereafterSCENARIO C• 15% reduction in water use due to water conservation and demand management (WC/WDM)• Unlawful irrigation water use eradicated in 2011 and controlled thereafter• Phase 2 Lesotho Highlands Water Project (Polihali Dam) and Thukela Water Project (Jana Dam and Mielietuin Dam )PRODUCTION, TRADE, SCARCITY & ‘VIRTUAL WATER’Southern Africa’s global agricultural tradeWater rich to water poorSADC’S GLOBAL TRADECURRENTLY, SADC IMPORTS RICE, EXPORTS FRUIT AND TOBACCO ….MAKES SENSE?SADC Trade in Selected Agricultural Products, Inputs IMPORTS EXPORTS BALANCEProduct / Input Year2009 0 0 02010 0 0 02009 210 410 2002010 130 278 1482009 800 34 -7662010 737 36 -7012009 6 76 702010 14 60 462009 62 76 152010 67 91 242009 152 1822 16712010 182 2367 21852009 10 30 202010 1 37 362009 299 1422 11232010 343 771 4272009 1006 270 -7352010 1013 345 -6682009 188 67 -1212010 206 47 -159Million $US CottonTobaccoFertilizers, mPesticidesCassavaMaizeRiceSoya BeanSugar BeansFruitSOUTHERN AFRICA - WHO HAS THE WATER?Least waterMost water Country Metres3/personSouth Africa 1110Malawi 1400Zimbabwe 1550Lesotho 1680Swaziland 4160Botswana 6820Namibia 8810Zambia 9630Angola 10510Mozambique 11320US$1 054 million0.56 km34.5 km3INTRA-SADC AGRICULTURAL TRADE South Africa                        Other SADC to other SADC                     to South AfricaUS$211 million0.13 km30.96 km3South Africa’s net exports: 3.50km3 green water 0.43km3 blue waterUS$843 million Water poor to water richRegional agricultural cooperation is a no-brainer (in water terms!) • Irrigation in SA uses 60% of water• Much for internationally “rain-fed” crops• “High-potential, rain-fed cropping land”:-Zambia - 11,1 million haMozambique - 8,8 million haZimbabwe - 6,3 million haMalawi - 0,4 million haTotal - 26,6 million haADDRESS SOCIAL IMPACT OF PRODUCTION SHIFT BY ‘SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION’ OF LOCAL FARMING? Policy cycle – multi decades Technical planning & strategy cycle (20 years?) Investment implementation (10 years) Drought cycle (10 – 20 years) – key planning focus  Major drought event (5 – 10 years) – action trigger Operational response (multi-seasonal) Operations (ongoing)Primary challenge – sustaining coherence through the cycle!CHALLENGE:- THE LONG WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CYCLE

SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from South Africa\u27s Vaal System \u27Problemshed\u27

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SLIDES: The Construction of Water Scarcity and Its Management: Some Insights from South Africa\u27s Vaal System \u27Problemshed\u27

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