Presenter: Kelly T. Redmond, Regional Climatologist, Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), Desert Research Institute
65 slide

Redmond, Kelly T.

English

Colorado Law

University of Colorado Law School Colorado Law Scholarly Commons Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13) 2003 6-11-2013 SLIDES: A History of Climate Variability and Change in the American West Kelly T. Redmond Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/water-climate-uncertainty  Part of the Climate Commons, Environmental Law Commons, Environmental Policy Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Law Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Public Policy Commons, Science and Technology Law Commons, State and Local Government Law Commons, Urban Studies and Planning Commons, Water Law Commons, and the Water Resource Management Commons Citation Information Redmond, Kelly T., "SLIDES: A History of Climate Variability and Change in the American West" (2013). Water, Climate and Uncertainty: Implications for Western Water Law, Policy, and Management (Summer Conference, June 11-13). https://scholar.law.colorado.edu/water-climate-uncertainty/22 Reproduced with permission of the Getches-Wilkinson Center for Natural Resources, Energy, and the Environment (formerly the Natural Resources Law Center) at the University of Colorado Law School. A History of Climate Variability and Change in the American WestKelly  T.  RedmondRegional ClimatologistWestern Regional Climate CenterDesert Research Institute2215 Raggio ParkwayReno Nevada  89512-1095775-674-7011    krwrcc@dri.eduProperties and Facets of Western ClimateImpossible to ignore, and cannot afford to in many cases.The West has the hottest, coldest, wettest, driest, snowiest         climates in the United States.  +134 F Death Valley-70 F Rogers Pass~280” Average annual precipitation upper Hoh River / Mt Olympus0” Annual precipitation (twice) at Death Valley1141” (minus October) snowfall in one season at Mt Baker WAHolds the world records for greatest 24 hour temperature drop:         (+46 to –54 in about 18 hours, January 1916, Browning Montana) and for the greatest 24-hour temperature rise:      (-54 to +49 in 23 hours, January 1972, Loma Montana)Extreme spatial variations.The odd and extreme juxtapositions that the West is known for.Topography as a central and controlling influenceAridity as a constant theme.Western HydrologyHigh elevations (supply region)Low elevations (demand region)Supply largely falls in winter.Demand largely occurs in summer.Usage is often far away from supply, in space and in time.(Can become out of sight, out of mind.)Climates elsewhere matter for local purposes.Water flows toward a) the gravitational center of the earth, b) money.Sno is e tremel important (appro 3 / 4 of ater s ppl )w  x y  x       w  u y .Snow is the cheapest reservoir there is.Oct-Mar             Apr-May-JuneFraction of Annual Total Precipitation, by SeasonJ l A gu y- uBozeman Airport (KBZN).  Often find (legitimate) temperature variations of 10-20 degrees F from one end of the runway to the other (11,000 feet), in winter.ASOS KTR homeReno Airport(KRNO)  KRNO ASOS (between runways)A i t U b /  pprox ma e r an  Downtown “Heat Bubble”Temporary ASOS(“not windy enough”)********************** Temperature differences can be 6-8 d F fegrees  rom one end of runway to the other, at night.Reno Nevada Airport.  Mean Annual Minimum Temperature.(F)41perature (383940um Temp3637333435al Minim ASOS temporarily at south end of runway303132ean AnnuYear1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201029MeMountainsGlaciers as climate indicators   ENSO influencesPDO influencesThe monsoonInsect outbreaks.Fire and its role.March 1, 1778  Captain James Cook names “Cape Foulweather” in pre-OregonMandan, pre-North Dakota,  Lewis and Clark, temperature to –45 in winter 1804-05Seaside Oregon (Fort Clatsop) Rains 88 out of 100 days 1805 1806 Lewis and         , -     Clark not “happy campers”Donner “Party”  - October 31st, 1846.1861-1862  The Great California Flood.  One quarter of the assessed value of California under water.  On the Willamette, every town on the low side of the river was washed away.1861-62 winter.  People walked across the Columbia River on the ice at Vancouver.  Horse teams across the Willamette at Portland.1866-69  Severe shoveling.  Central Pacific Railroad, Sierra Nevada.The winter of 1887-88.  Columbia Flood, 1894.  1,200,000 cubic feet per second at Portland.Heppner, Oregon, 247 people killed in 15 minutes, flash flood, June 14, 1903.January 1909, Helen Mine CA, 71.54” of rain for the month.Nov 9, 1914. Bagdad AZ, first rain in 767 days.          1919, December 10-17.  Columbia completely frozen over at Vancouver, Dec 14-16 Willamette at Portland.1924, December 16-26, Ford car driven across the Willamette several times at Portland.1948 Vanport flood.  Columbia 1,000,000 cfs, and a town of 19,000 completely gone.1948-49.  A standout winter in much of the West, cold and snowy.  Snow in San Diego first time since 1882, 4.2” in Burbank CA.January 13, 1952  The City of San Francisco.  Train accidentally “on ice”.1952-56 Southwest Drought.October 1962 Columbus Day windstorm.  Several billion board feet of timber downed, various gusts to 150, 160, 175, very highest possibly 192 mph at Cape Blanco.1964 West Coast floods.1984 record rises on Great Basin terminal lakes.  Scary moments at Glen Canyon.1986 Flood in California   .1990 July 11, half billion dollars in damage from Front Range hailstorm.1986-87 to 1993-94 drought in the Sierra Nevada.Winter 1992-1993 Floods in Arizona.N b M hovem er – arc  1948-1949 Temperature departure at 850 mb ( 5000 ft)   ~  Temperature Rank  November-March  1948-49  out of 106 years.  0 = lowest.  100 = highest.City of San Francisco, January 1952Population is Outdoors oriented.Growing rapidly.R ti ll ti l t decrea ona y overs mu a e .Skiing, rafting, biking, hiking, camping…Fitter and healthier (less capita per capita)      .More exposed to the sun.Climate as a psychological accompanyment    Climate and western U.S. literatureThe Land of Little Rain.   Mary Austin, 1903.Genesis. Wallace Stegner, 1962 (in Wolf Willow).        Desert Solitaire.   Edward Abbey, 1968.This House of Sky Ivan Doig 1978   .   , .[ Written from Seattle: ]“I walk back toward my typewriter past a window framing the     ,      backyard fir trees.  They are replaced by the wind-leaning jackpines of one Montana ridgeline or another.  I glance higher for some hint of the weather, and the square of air broadens and broadens to become            the blue expanse over Montana rangeland, so vast and vaulting that it rears, from the foundation-line of the plains horizon, to form the walls and roof of all of life’s experience that my younger self could imagine, a single great house of sky.”Ivan Doig, This House of Sky, p 106.Water VaporJune 1 20031800 GMT WashingtonRedmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSOArizonaCentral SierraCourtesy Klaus Wolter  &  Mike Timlin, Climate Diagnostics CenterPositive Negative Mantua    et al.Courtesy of Nate Mantua, U WashingtonArizona Statewide Winter Precipitation  (Oct-Mar)  &  10-Yr Running Mean1895-2003Arizona Statewide Precipitation (12-Months:  May – April)    & 10-Yr Running Mean1895 - 2003New Mexico Statewide Average Precipitation (May - April)    & 10-Yr Running Mean1895 - 2003Arizona Monsoon.  Statewide July-Sept precipitation.  1895-1902.              & 10-year running mean.Colorado Statewide Average Precipitation, by Month.  Jan 2000 – Apr 2003.Long term Average (1895-2003)Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2001 Jan 2003Colorado Statewide Average Precipitation  Dec – Aug      & 10-Year Running Mean1895 – 2003.  (9-month period)California Sacramento River Drainage Basin May – Apr Precipitation   1895 – 2003&  5-Year running meanSacramento River Flow.  Annual Water Year Total.Millions of Acre Feet (MAF).  Oct - Sep.MAF  )3540Volume (  2530ear Flow V1520Water Ye510Ending Year of Water Year1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000American River  @  Fair Oaks  (Sacramento CA)Annual Maximum Three-Day Average FlowReconstructed Natural Flow below Folsom Reservoir160180S  )120140w  (  KCFS80100mum Flow4060Maxim1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000020Water YearCrater Lake Water Elevation  (Adjusted to Sept 30)Referenced to Nominal Elevation of 6175 feet MSLReconstructed50100ve 6175')Observed-100-500  (cm abov-200-150Elevation  350-300-250face Water -400-Surf1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000YearCrater Lake Park HQ.  Total Winter (July-June) Snowfall.Units:  Inches.800 (inches)600Snowfall 400200Starting Year1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100s)Crater Lake Park HQ.  Winter Centered (July-June) Precipitation.Units:   [inches].n (inches8090100ecipitatio6070pTotal Pre4050ulJunPcp102030Starting Year1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010J0Crater Lake Park HQ.  Mean Annual Temperature (F)F)4142perature (3940ual Temp38Ann3637Year1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201035Niwot Ridge LTER Sites, CO.  Annual Mean Temperature.C-1         3022 m  ( 9914 ft)Saddle   3528 m  (11575 ft)D-1 3739 m (12267 ft)2.04.0               C-1  3022 m / 9914 ftre (C) 0.0Saddle 3528 m / 11575 ftemperatur-4.0-2.0       Te-6.0 D-1  3739 m / 12267 ftYear1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-8.0Data Ctsy of Mark Losleben,Niwot LTERMean Annual Temperature ( Degrees C).Niwot Ridge Site D-1  3739 m / 12267 ft.Reanalysis 39-41 N, 105-107 W, (600+700 mb)/2C )-2-1Reanalysisperature ( -3ated Temp-5-4Niwot RidgeEstima-6Niwot = 1.22 x Reanalysis  -  0.70r = + 0.61    r^2 = 0.37Year1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-7With Thanks to Mark Losleben, CIRES/MRCReconstructed Annual Precipitation.Nevada Division 3.  From Bristlecone Pine.Hughes and Graumlich data.  July thru June.Blue: 7-Year Running Mean 1599/1600 - 1995/96    .    .3035m)2025Precip (cm15ada Div 3 510Neva1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Ending Year0 Reconstructed Annual Precipitation.Nevada Division 3.  From Bristlecone Pine.Hughes and Graumlich data.  July thru June.  Ave = 19.7 cm.Blue: 15-Year Running Mean. 6000 BC thru 1996.         2426(cm)22-Yr Mean  18203 Pcp 15-16NV Div -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000Ending Year14 Verde River.  Reconstructed Flow.    572-1985  A.D.Standardized Units.68ore 4Z Sco20Year600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-2Verde River Z Scores  572-1985 ADNumber of Counts per Running Hundred Yearstop (1 0 or more) middle (1 5 or more) bottom (2 0 or more) .   ,  .   ,  .   2530od20Year perioApprox7 - YRReturn15Per 100-YApprox15 - YR ReturnApprox510Counts 25 - YR Return600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000Center Year of PeriodSalmon populations vary.Kodiak Island.Past 2200 years.Bruce Finney, Nature, 2002, 413, p 731California Statewide Average Temperature  Nov-Mar  & 10-yr Running Mean1895-2003Idaho Statewide Mean Annual Temperature, 1895 – 2002.  & 10-year running mean.Trends 1966+    Feb-Mar-AprTrends 1966+    Annual, Full Year.National Trends.Three-Month Segments.Done for climate forecasting purposes.TemperaturePrecipitationSix models, 12 opinions, for Northern California. 1900-2100P i it tirec p a onTemperatureThanks to Mike Dettinger, Scripps /  USGSPCPotential effects of global warming on the Sacramento / San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuaryNoah Knowles and Dan Cayan, Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of OceanographyT6 Woodchuck Glacier Extent, North Cascades National Park1910Elrod, Glacier National Park Archives1931 Hileman, Glacier National P k A hiar  rc ves1997Fagre, USGS / Glacier National ParkAlan Hamlet & Dennis LettenmeierU of Washington.Extreme Precipitation / Snowpack Changes2040-2060, BAU Scenario.  PCM (NCAR/DOE). Ctsy Bill Pennell, Ruby Leung, PNNL.April 1 Snow Water Equivalent on right.     Institutional change:When change is widely desired, or thought to be         needed, but various parties do not have the ability or will power to propose actions, and then to carry through, Significant climate anomalies can act as a catalyst for change.Large-scale drought is one such catalyst     .“We had to do it …. we had no choice !”Climate Stationarity“The history of climate is a non-stationary time series.”   *There are no true climatic “normals” (states to which the climate must return).Climate never repeats itself exactly   .Climate is always fluctuating, on all scales.There are always surprises remaining.We can thus never stop observing or monitoring.* “The Paradigm of Climatology:  An Essay” Reid A. Bryson, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997, 78(3), 449-455Preliminary, tentative, possible tendencies toward l iconc us ons:Climate matters.History matters .Climate history matters.A final example:

SLIDES: A History of Climate Variability and Change in the American West

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SLIDES: A History of Climate Variability and Change in the American West

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