Barghouty, Nasser F.

Falconer, David

NASA Technical Reports Server

www.nasa.gov
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY OFFICE
David Falconer  (ZP13/UAH-CSPAR) & Nasser Barghouty (ZP12)
MSFC Innovation Day - November 1, 2016
MAG4: An All-Clear Space-Weather Forecasting System
Earth
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160013274 2019-08-29T17:27:00+00:00Z
2MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
The Solar Particle Event (SPE) Threat
• A major eruptive flare 
– the most powerful explosions in the 
solar system  
– dangerous to unshielded astronauts
3MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 and Human Spaceflight 
4MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 and Human Spaceflight 
“Technology Area 6.5.4 Space Weather Prediction: The focus of this area is 
to advance improvements in solar particle event (SPE) forecasting and alert 
systems to minimize operational constraints for missions outside the protection 
of the Earth’s geo-magnetic field.”  http://www.nasa.gov/offices/oct/home/roadmaps/index.html
The ability to accurately forecast space-weather conditions and space-radiation 
levels is one of the highest (level 3) priorities on the agency’s roadmap for 
Human Health, Life Support, and Habitation Systems (“TA 6.5.4”)
SPE is one of two major sources of highly-ionizing radiation levels facing 
human spaceflight in particular as well as space exploration in general 
The technical challenges we face in understanding (and mitigating) these two 
sources are quite varied and complex…  
…and this is where MAG4 makes the difference! 
5MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
The Threat
• Eruptive flares can produce an 
SPE
• SPEs arrive 10 minutes to a 
day after the light of the flare 
• For unshielded astronauts, 
SPEs can cause radiation 
damage and possibly lethal 
radiation doses
6MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
SPE Overview
• Forecasting flares and CMEs 
is the first step to forecasting 
dangerous space weather 
• SPEs are especially 
dangerous to astronauts 
especially during EVAs or 
away from LEO
• One of the best forecasts is 
All Clear Forecasts
7MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Space Weather Overview
SIMULTANEOUS   EFFECTS
INCREASED D-LAYER
IONIZATION
OUTBURST OF 
RADIO NOISE
GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE
RADIO
INTERFERENCE
ANOMALOUS
RADIO 
PROPAGATION
ENHANCED 
ENERGETIC 
PARTICLES
IONIZATION
MANNED FLIGHT
RADIATION 
HAZARD(I)
SPACECRAFT
RADIATION 
HAZARD (C3)
ANOMALOUS
RADIO 
PROPAGATION
RADAR
CLUTTER
IONOSPHERIC
STORM
RADIO EFFECTS
AURORA
SATELLITE DRAG
ULTRA-VIOLET
SPE
Flare CME  
S
p
a
c
e
 W
e
a
th
e
r
X-EUV VISIBLE LIGHT
ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION
(IMMEDIATE: TIME 8 MIN)
RADIO WAVES
INDUCED 
CURRENTS
ATOMIC NUCLEI
HIGH ENERGY PARTICLES
(DELAYED < HOUR)
IONS AND ELECTRONS
ENHANCED SOLAR WIND
(DELAYED 1-3 Days)
DELAYED EFFECTS
GEOMAGNETIC 
STORM
Drivers of Space Weather    
8MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Solution
• Flares like earthquakes are very 
difficult to predict
• Historical records can provide 
empirical base forecasts
• MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast) 
uses empirical data to predict the 
event rate of dangerous solar 
activity
• It does this automatically 24/7, 
making new forecasts every 96 
minutes   
• It forecasts major flares, coronal 
mass ejections (CMEs), and SPEs
9MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Science
• Flares and CMEs are powered by 
magnetic energy stored in the 
corona
• Direct measurements of coronal 
magnetic energy are inaccurate
• When the magnetic field is 
stressed, energy is stored and 
available for “explosive release”; 
more energy is stored, greater the  
chance of a major flare
• MAG4 uses a proxy to quantify the 
free energy stored in an active 
region
• Event rates are correlated with the 
magnitude of the  free-magnetic-
energy proxies
• Data driven forecasts
Shoemaker-Levy 9, 1994
Neutral Line, color coded for gradient
500 G
-500 G
0.1G/km
0 G/km
Earth magnetic field 1 G
10MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Software Highlights
1. Automatic data downloading
2. Identifying strong-magnetic field areas
3. Associating strong-magnetic field areas with 
NOAA active regions
4. De-projecting vector magnetograms
5. Neutral-Line free-energy proxy
6. Associating flares in near real time, for 
improved forecasts
7. gentle fails
8. missing or corrupted data
9. Customizing output for various customers
Earthward
11MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Automated Processes
Download HMI Magnetogram
Identify Active Regions
Calculate Free-Energy Proxy
Predict Event Rate
Make Forecasts
MAG4 is completely 
automated, from 
downloading 
magnetograms to 
outputting and storing 
forecast products 
12MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Forecast
Sample Forecast 
06-Mar-2012 14:23NOAA  ARs
11423
11426/3
11429/5
11430/6
11431/1
From NOAA’s GOES satellite 
13MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
How well does MAG4 Forecast?
Actual operational data from JSC/SRAG
Actual Times of X or M Flares
All Clear
High Risk
14MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 versus State of Art
Forecast Method POD FAR
State of Art1 0.29 0.71
MAG4 0.38 0.48
Significance (2σ) (3σ)
• For rare events Percent of 
Correct  (PC) forecast is of 
little use
• Probability of Detection 
(POD) events correctly 
forecasted
• False Alarm Rates (FAR) 
predicted events that did not 
occur 1 Input into NOAA Forecast
15MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Demonstration
CCMC MAG4
16MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Wrap Up
17MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Backup Slides……………………………………………………...
SRAG Mission Control
EVA
18MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Computer Language and Platforms
• IDL was the language that was used for most of the development.  IDL is good 
at array manipulation, and is the dominant language used for Solar Physics.   
There is an extension of IDL called SolarSoft, subroutines from there were 
copied and used, but since SolarSoft could be upgraded in a way that might 
cause problems, MAG4 is not run in the SolarSoft environment
• Java codes used as a backup tool for data retrieval at some point for a few 
months it was only way to get data
• PHP codes for communication with web
• A few Unix native programs fitted to be used in multi OS environment.(zip, 
wget, etc)
Platforms
We started with Windows, and Dr. Khazanov added other platforms as requested.
• SRAG JSC - Windows and Mac OS
• USAF - Linux and Windows
• CCMC - Linux
19MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
MAG4 Research-to-OperationsTimeline
• 2011 MAG4 installed at JSC Space 
Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) as a NRT 
(Near-Real-Time) forecasting tool,  and 
SRAG began pre-operations testing
• 2012 Provided NOAA web access to MAG4 
NRT forecasts
• 2013 MAG4 upgraded so that it can use a 
combination of free-energy proxy and 
previous flare activity, for better accuracy
• 2013 Won the Silver Snoopy Award
• 2015 Transition from HMI line-of-sight 
magnetogram to vector magnetograms
Silver Snoopy 
“Employees must have 
significantly contributed to the 
human space flight program to 
ensure flight safety and mission 
success.”
20MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Current and Planned Improvements for MAG4
• Continue to afford support and upgrades to 
JSC/SRAG 
• Correct for known projection errors in free-
energy proxies
• Take full advantage of vector magnetograms  
• Improve All Clear Forecast for SPE 
• Partner with Air Force, and NOAA 
The gold crosses represent 
active regions that produce an 
SPE while the black dots do 
not.
21MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Identifying Active Regions on the Sun
• Magnetograms are spatial 
maps of the magnetic field 
strengths 
• They come in two basic types 
- line-of-sight (right)
- vector magnetograms
• Free-energy proxies can be 
measured for Active Regions 
(areas with sunspots) from 
either type of magnetogram 
• Line-of-sight magnetograms 
suffer reduced accuracy 
further from disk center 
06-Mar-2012 14:23NOAA  ARs
11423
11426/3
11429/5
11430/6
11431/1
NOAA 
Active 
Regions 
(ARs)
Best 
Accuracy
A full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram of 
the Sun, from SDO/HMI.Magnetograms & identify 
active regions 
22MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
How Well Does MAG4 Forecast:
Forecast Method YY YN NY NN PC(%) POD FAR HSS TSS
McIntosh/NOAA 259 638 631 18476 93.7 0.29 0.71 0.26 0.26
Free-Energy Proxy
Present MAG4
273 284 618 18830 95.5 0.31 0.50 0.35 0.47
Free-energy proxy and 
previous flare activity
Upgraded MAG4
340 317 551 18797 95.7 0.38 0.48 0.42 0.49
Best 890 0 0 1911
4
100 1 0 1 1
2. Skill Metrics    Significance of Upgrade
Improvement in Metric PC(%) POD FAR HSS TSS
McIntosh/NOAA
Present MAG4
1.8±0.5
(4σ)
0.03±0.05
(0.3σ)
0.21±0.07
(3σ)
0.10±0.04
(2σ)
0.21±0.07
(3σ)
Present MAG4
Upgraded MAG4
0.2±0.2
(0.7σ)
0.08±0.03
(2σ)
0.02±0.05
(0.5σ)
0.06±0.03
(2σ)
0.03±0.05
(0.5σ)
23MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
How Well Does MAG4 Forecast:
Actual Yes Actual No
Predict Yes YY YN
Predict No NY NN
Metric Equations
2. Skill Metrics Equations
Percent Correct      PC=(YY+NN)/(YY+YN+NY+YY)
Probability of Detection POD=YY/(YY+NY)
False Alarm Rate FAR=YN/(YY+YN)
Heidke Skill Score HSS=2*(YY*NN-YN*NY)/[(YY+NY)* 
(NY+NN)+(YY+YN)*(YN+NN)]
True Skill Score TSS=(YY*NN-NY*YN)/((YY+NY)*(YN+NN))
24MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Improving the Forecasts:
1. Recent Flare History (In Progress) 
Free Energy Only
Recently Flaring              
Recently Non-flaring    
Active regions that have  recently produced an X- or M-Class flare are 
more likely to produce flares in the near future
1           10         100
Free-Energy Proxy  W(kG)
1           10         100
Free-Energy Proxy  W(kG)
25MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
+-
+
-
M
o
re
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
 L
e
s
s
Free-Magnetic Energy
Currents ~1012 Amps
Contours Vertical Magnetic Field
Arrows Transverse Magnetic Field
Twist Free Magnetic Energy
Or Nonpotentiality
Size
26MAG4 Presentation • MSFC INNOVATION DAY• 2016 
Comparison of Safe and Not Safe Days
June 26, 2013
C1, C1.5 flares
March 7, 2012
X5.4, X1.3, C1.6
CME 2684, 1825 km/sec,
Solar Energetic Proton Event reaches 
6530 particle flux unit >10MeV


MAG4: An All-Clear Space-Weather Forecasting System

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