Economic Regime Identification and Prediction in TAC SCM Using Sales and Procurement Information

Abstract

Our research is focused on the effects of the additionof procurement information (offer prices) to a sales-based economic regime model. This model is used for strategic, tactical, and operational decision making in dynamic supply chains. We evaluate the performance of the regime model through experiments with the MinneTAC trading agent, which competes in the TAC SCM game. The new regime model has an overall predictive performance which is equal to the performance of the existing model. Regime switches are predicted more accurately, whereas the prediction accuracy of dominant regimes does not improve. However, because procurement information has been added to the model, the model has been enriched, which gives new opportunities for applications in the procurement market, such as procurement reserve pricing