External fire spread between buildings is internationally considered as a major concern for buildings in dense urban environments. While design guidelines differ between countries, the fundamental methods currently used for limiting the risk of fire spread between buildings are generally limited to specifying the minimum required separation distance for a given unprotected façade area, or conversely, limiting the maximum allowable unprotected façade area for a given separation distance. The safety level associated with the current design guidelines is however unknown, making the implementation of innovative, safer and more cost-effective design solutions difficult. In order to assess the safety target implicitly incorporated in currently accepted design solutions, a methodology is developed for evaluating the annual probability of reaching unacceptable radiation intensities at the opposite façade. As a case study, the methodology is applied to a design which is in agreement with the current UK requirements specified in BR 187. This case study exposes inconsistencies in the current design guidelines, indicating the need for developing explicit safety targets
