The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts
around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This
behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which
has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades {essentially
uncorrelated to gas production.} We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop
crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event
magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal
distribution. It predicts about one event <\,M5 per day in 2025, pointing to
increasing stress to human living conditions.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, to appear in Earthquakes and Structure