This work deals with the computation of industry-relevant bond wire failure
probabilities in microelectronic packages. Under operating conditions, a
package is subject to Joule heating that can lead to electrothermally induced
failures. Manufacturing tolerances result, e.g., in uncertain bond wire
geometries that often induce very small failure probabilities requiring a high
number of Monte Carlo (MC) samples to be computed. Therefore, a hybrid MC
sampling scheme that combines the use of an expensive computer model with a
cheap surrogate is used. The fraction of surrogate evaluations is maximized
using an iterative procedure, yielding accurate results at reduced cost.
Moreover, the scheme is non-intrusive, i.e., existing code can be reused. The
algorithm is used to compute the failure probability for an example package and
the computational savings are assessed by performing a surrogate efficiency
study.Comment: submitted to Therminic 2016, available at
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7748645
