When an epidemic spreads in a network, a key question is where was its
source, i.e., the node that started the epidemic. If we know the time at which
various nodes were infected, we can attempt to use this information in order to
identify the source. However, maintaining observer nodes that can provide their
infection time may be costly, and we may have a budget k on the number of
observer nodes we can maintain. Moreover, some nodes are more informative than
others due to their location in the network. Hence, a pertinent question
arises: Which nodes should we select as observers in order to maximize the
probability that we can accurately identify the source? Inspired by the simple
setting in which the node-to-node delays in the transmission of the epidemic
are deterministic, we develop a principled approach for addressing the problem
even when transmission delays are random. We show that the optimal
observer-placement differs depending on the variance of the transmission delays
and propose approaches in both low- and high-variance settings. We validate our
methods by comparing them against state-of-the-art observer-placements and show
that, in both settings, our approach identifies the source with higher
accuracy.Comment: Accepted for presentation at the 54th Annual Allerton Conference on
Communication, Control, and Computin