Distributed modeling of monthly air temperatures over the rugged terrain of the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Our analyses of the monthly mean air temperature of meteorological stations show that altitude, global solar radiation and surface effective radiation have a significant impact on air temperature. We set up a physically-based empirical model for monthly air temperature simulation. Combined the proposed model with the distributed modeling results of global solar radiation and routine meteorological observation data, we also developed a method for the distributed simulation of monthly air temperatures over rugged terrain. Spatial distribution maps are generated at a resolution of 1 km×1 km for the monthly mean, the monthly mean maximum and the monthly mean minimum air temperatures for the Yellow River Basin. Analysis shows that the simulation results reflect to a considerable extent the macro and local distribution characteristics of air temperature. Cross-validation shows that the proposed model displays good stability with mean absolute bias errors of 0.19°C-0.35°C. Tests carried out on local meteorological station data and case year data show that the model has good spatial and temporal simulation capacity. The proposed model solely uses routine meteorological data and can be applied easily to other regions. © Science in China Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH 2009