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近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析/Characteristics of the flood and drought disasters in the Tarim River basin in recent 300 years[J]
Authors
中国科学院大学,北京100049
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011
+5 more
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
叶柏松
姜逢清
施枫芝
赵成义
Publication date
1 January 2014
Publisher
Abstract
干旱与洪涝是极端水文事件中最具有代表性的水文事件,在气候变化的影响下旱涝灾害事件越来越引起人们的关注.采用传统的气象干旱指标-标准化降水指数SPI和小波分析法、反距离加权法以及线性回归分析,研究了近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害分布特征及关键影响因素.结果表明:近300 a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈增加的趋势,且洪涝事件较干旱事件明显.其中,喀什、阿克苏等地的发生频率最高,并表现为群发性;近60 a塔里木河流域自西向东旱涝灾害事件呈交替现象.小波分析结果表明,塔里木河流域旱涝灾害呈现15 a的周期性,由此推断未来5~10 a研究区湿润化面积仍有扩大的可能.大气环流指数与多尺度下的SPI指相关性检验表明,PNA对秋季和冬季的SPI值的影响较为显著;旱涝灾害对农牧业的影响较为严重,其中,洪涝灾害的影响大于干旱
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Last time updated on 29/11/2016