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基于ANFIS的香梨始花期预测研究/Prediction of the Beginning Date of Fragrant Pear Flowering[J]
Authors
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐,830011
刘厚勇
+6 more
塔中气象站,新疆库尔勒,841000
巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,新疆库尔勒,841000
新疆气象服务中心,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002
李新虎
李晓川
潘新民
Publication date
1 January 2012
Publisher
Abstract
应用自适应模糊神经推理系统(Adaptiv network-based fuzzy inference system,ANFIS)对库尔勒地区香梨始花期进行了预测,3月平均气温、3月下旬平均气温、5 cm地温、10 cm地温、2月下旬日照、3月上旬日照、3月中旬日照、3月下旬日照8个指标为输入变量,香梨始花期单项指标作为输出,结果表明:预测的平均相对误差为2.51%,经t检验和回归分析表明预测值和实测值相差不大,相关系数为0.928 6,具有较好的一致性,模型具有较高的精度和稳定性,说明ANFIS模型可以很好地描述香梨始花期和气象因子的关系,为香梨始花期的进一步研究提供了参考
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Last time updated on 29/11/2016