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塔里木河流域径流变化趋势分析及预测/Trend analysis and forecast of the runoff change in Tarim River basin[J]
Authors
LIU Xinhua
MTALIP·Tuohuti
+8 more
XU Hailiang
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐,830011
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011
中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
刘新华
塔里木河流域管理局,新疆库尔勒,841000
徐海量
木塔里甫·托乎提
Publication date
1 January 2012
Publisher
Abstract
结合塔里木河流域三源流各水文站及干流阿拉尔52年(1957 - 2008年)的径流实测资料,运用时间序列周期方差分析外推、非参数检验和R/S分析等方法探讨了径流量的周期、跃变及未来的变化趋势.结果表明:阿克苏河两水系径流趋势增加显著并在未来的一段时间内将长期持续,其突变点皆在1993年;和田河同古孜洛克与乌鲁瓦提存在相反的径流趋势且突变不显著;叶尔羌河表现为微递增趋势并在1993年发生显著性突变,但在未来的一段时间这趋势将转变为减少;源、干流在突变、径流趋势、径流量等皆存在较大差异,这表明人类活动强烈干扰了干流的水文过程
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Last time updated on 29/11/2016