Explores how the large share of Latino/Hispanic voters in states that gained congressional seats and Electoral College votes as a result of the 2010 census, as well as Latino/Hispanic population growth, could affect their role in national politics

Mark Hugo Lopez

Paul Taylor

English

IssueLab

           January 5, 2011  The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos     FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mark Hugo Lopez,  Associate Director Paul Taylor, Director  1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel  (202) 419-3600 Fax (202) 419-3608 www.pewhispanic.org Copyright © 2011 2 Pew Hispanic Center www.pewhispanic.org     Table of Contents    SECTION PAGE Overview 5 Reapportionment Gains and Hispanic Population Growth 7 Latino Electoral Strength 8 References 9 Appendix 10 3 The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos  www.pewhispanic.org  About the Pew Hispanic Center  The Pew Hispanic Center is a nonpartisan research organization that seeks to improve public understanding of the diverse Hispanic population in the United States and to chronicle Latinos' growing impact on the nation. It does not take positions on policy issues. The Center is part of the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" based in Washington, D.C., and it is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts, a Philadelphia-based public charity. All of the Center’s reports are available at www.pewhispanic.org.   The staff of the Pew Hispanic Center is:  Paul Taylor, Director Rakesh Kochhar, Associate Director for Research  Richard Fry, Senior Research Associate  Gretchen Livingston, Senior Researcher  Daniel Dockterman, Research Assistant    Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director Jeffrey S. Passel, Senior Demographer Gabriel Velasco, Research Analyst Mary Seaborn, Administrative Manager About this Report  This report analyses the 2010 Congressional reapportionment and Latino electoral strength. The primary focus is on Latinos in states that gained or lost Congressional seats in the 2010 reapportionment. The data for this report are derived from 2010 Census population counts for the nation and the states as published by the Census Bureau, the 2010 Congressional reapportionment, the 2009 American Community Survey, and the 2000 Census.   A Note on Terminology  The terms “Latino” and “Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this report.  The terms “whites” and “blacks” are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of their populations.  “Foreign born” refers to persons born outside of the United States, Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories to parents neither of whom was a U.S. citizen.  4 Pew Hispanic Center www.pewhispanic.org  “Native born” refers to persons who are U.S. citizens at birth, including those born in the United States, Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories and those born abroad to parents at least one of whom was a U.S. citizen.  About the Authors  Mark Hugo Lopez is the associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center. Prior to joining the Center, Lopez was research director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement as well as an assistant professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. His areas of expertise include Latino youth, crime, labor economics, civic engagement and voting behavior. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.  Paul Taylor is executive vice president of the Pew Research Center, director of the Pew Hispanic Center and director of Pew’s Social & Demographic Trends project. From 1996 through 2003, he served as president and board chairman of the Alliance for Better Campaigns. Before that, he was a newspaper reporter for 25 years, the last 14 at The Washington Post, where he covered national politics and served as a foreign correspondent. From 1992 to 1995, he was the Post's bureau chief in South Africa and reported on the historic transformation from apartheid to democracy. He also covered four U.S. presidential campaigns.  Recommended Citation  Lopez, Mark Hugo and Paul Taylor. “The 2010 Reapportionment and Latinos,” Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, D.C. (January 5, 2011).  Acknowledgments  We thank Rick Fry, Gretchen Livingston and Jeffrey Passel for technical guidance. Daniel Dockterman helped in the production of the report. Gabriel Velasco number checked the report.    5 The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos  www.pewhispanic.org  Overview  Hispanic voters are nearly three times more prevalent in states that gained congressional seats and Electoral College votes in the 2010 reapportionment than they are in states that lost seats, according to an analysis of Census data by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center. Based on averages reflecting congressional gains and losses, 15.2% of the eligible voter1  population in states that gained seats is Hispanic, compared with just 5.4% of eligible voters in those states that lost seats. With these reapportionment changes, Latinos likely will play a larger role in national politics in the coming decade. Two states that gained seats, Florida and Nevada, have been key swing battlegrounds in recent presidential elections (having voted for the Republican nominee in 2004 and the Democrat in 2008). In both states, Latinos are a growing share of eligible voters.                                                         1 An eligible voter is 18 years of age or older and a U.S. citizen. Table 1 – 2010 Census Reapportionment and Latinos   Latino Share of…  Congressional Gain/Loss Eligible Voters,  2009 % Population, 2009 % Population Growth,  2000-2009 % States That Gained Congressional Seats Texas 4 25.5 36.9 63.1 Florida 2 15.0 21.5 51.1 South Carolina 1 1.6 4.5 19.8 Georgia 1 2.8 8.3 23.2 Arizona 1 19.7 30.8 50.2 Utah 1 6.5 12.3 25.7 Nevada 1 14.1 26.5 47.5 Washington 1 5.3 10.3 31.9 State weighted average  15.2 23.6 46.1      States That Lost Congressional Seats New York -2 11.7 16.8 72.0 Ohio -2 1.8 2.8 55.9 Massachusetts -1 5.9 8.8 62.8 New Jersey -1 11.0 16.7 114.4 Pennsylvania -1 3.5 5.1 77.8 Illinois -1 8.4 15.3 89.5 Michigan -1 2.6 4.2 316.3 Iowa -1 2.0 4.3 59.1 Missouri -1 1.9 3.4 21.3 Louisiana -1 2.3 3.6 234.4 State weighted average  5.4 8.4 102.6 Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. The state weighted average gives greater weight to states that gained more seats in Congress. For example, Texas (+4) receives a weight four times greater than the state of Washington (+1). Similarly, for states that lost seats, New York (-2) gets twice as much weight as Louisiana (-1).  Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2009 ACS (1% IPUMS sample) and 2010 December Census Release PEW RESEARCH CENTER 6 Pew Hispanic Center www.pewhispanic.org   According to the Census Bureau, there were 308 million people residing in the U.S. in 2010, up 9% from 2000 (Census Bureau, 2010). Overall, based on 2009 population estimates, Hispanics accounted for more than half (51%) of that growth.2 However, because many Latinos are either too young to vote or are not U.S. citizens, not all of their population growth translates into immediate electoral strength. Among the nation’s 48.4 million Hispanics in 2009, a record 20.1 million are eligible to vote. Yet an even greater number are not eligible to vote. Some 15.5 million3 Hispanics are U.S. citizens 17 years of age or younger and 12.8 million of all ages are not U.S. citizens.4  Even so, the number of the Latinos eligible to vote continues to grow. Since 2000, nearly 6 million more Latinos have become eligible to vote. The bulk of this growth was attributable to the 5 million U.S. born Latino youths nationwide who turned 18 during this past decade. That translates into an additional half-million U.S. born Latinos coming of age each year—a pattern that is certain to persist, and grow, in the coming decades.   No matter what happens with immigration patterns in the future, the aging of the U.S. born Latino youth bulge ensures that the electoral strength of the nation’s largest minority group will continue to grow in the coming decades. And much of that growth will take place in states that have gained congressional seats and Electoral College votes.                                                           2 Final 2010 Census population counts for the Hispanic population, and all other groups of Americans, will be released by the Census Bureau later this year. 3 Among Hispanics who are U.S. citizens and 17 years of age or younger, some 15.3 million were born in the U.S. 4 Sum may not total due to rounding.  7 The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos  www.pewhispanic.org  Reapportionment Gains and Hispanic Population Growth  Based on results of the 2010 Census, eight states—Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington—will gain congressional seats and Electoral College votes. Texas will gain four, Florida two, and all others one. Ten states will lose seats—Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. New York and Ohio will lose two and all others one (Census Bureau, 2010).   Overall Latinos represent a greater share of eligible voter and resident populations in states that will gain seats than they do in states that will lose seats. Among eligible voters, in states that will gain seats 15.2% are Latino, while in states that will lose seats just 5.4% are Latino. Among resident populations, 23.6% is Latino in states that will gain seats compared with 8.4% in states that will lose seats.  In Texas, Latinos account for one-in-four (25.5%) of the state’s eligible voters and 36.9% of the state’s population. In Florida, Latinos account for one-in-seven (15%) of the state’s eligible voters and 21.5% of the state’s population. And in Arizona and Nevada, Hispanics represent 19.7% and 14.1% of eligible voters respectively.   Many of the states that gained congressional seats did so partly because of rapid population growth among Hispanics. Texas’ population increased by nearly four million, or by 21%, between 2000 and 2010. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of that growth came from growth in the state’s Hispanic population, which increased by almost 2.5 million.5  In Florida, Hispanic population growth accounted for more than half (51%) of the state’s population growth through this decade. Even in states with smaller Hispanic populations, Hispanics accounted for a large share of population growth. In Georgia, Hispanics accounted for 23.2% of the state’s growth. In South Carolina, Hispanics accounted for 19.8% of the state’s growth.  Even in states that lost congressional seats, Latinos contributed significantly to population gains, possibly limiting reapportionment losses. For instance, in New York, 72% of the population growth this decade came from the Latino population. In New Jersey, the state’s population would likely have declined without Hispanic population growth. And in Michigan, Latino population growth kept the state’s population from declining even more than it did.                                                           5 The Census Bureau has not issued state population counts by race and ethnicity from the 2010 Census. However, the 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) provides the most recent state population estimates by race and ethnicity. Latino population estimates from the 2009 ACS are used throughout this report. 8 Pew Hispanic Center www.pewhispanic.org  Latino Electoral Strength  Latino voting strength is limited by the fact that one-third of all Latinos is under the age of 18 and by the fact that many Latino adults are not U.S. citizens. Because of these factors, the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote is lower than it is among either whites or blacks, even though the Hispanic population has grown rapidly in recent decades (Suro, Fry and Passel, 2005).   In Texas, for example, even though Hispanic population growth helped to fuel the expansion of the state’s congressional delegation, fewer than half (43.1%) of all Hispanics are eligible to vote, compared with nearly eight-in-ten (77.3%) whites and seven-in-ten blacks (70%).  In Florida, fewer than half (48.3%) of the state’s Hispanics are eligible to vote, while eight-in-ten (79.8%) whites and 63.5% of blacks are eligible to vote.   In Georgia—a state where the vast majority of Hispanic adults are foreign born who arrived within the last decade or two—the gap is even wider. There, only 22.9% of the state’s Latinos are eligible to vote, compared with 76.2% of whites and 69.6% of blacks. Similar patterns are present in other “new settlement” states.   Table 2 – Share of the Population Eligible to Vote in States with Congressional Seat Changes, by Race and Ethnicity   Share Eligible to Vote %  Congressional Gain/Loss Latinos Whites Blacks States That Gained Congressional Seats Texas 4 43.1 77.3 70.0 Florida 2 48.3 79.8 63.5 South Carolina 1 25.8 78.4 72.7 Georgia 1 22.9 76.2 69.6 Arizona 1 41.6 79.0 64.7 Utah 1 34.3 70.2 51.0 Nevada 1 33.9 78.3 67.8 Washington 1 36.0 77.9 63.9      States That Lost Congressional Seats New York -2 47.6 77.4 64.0 Ohio -2 47.4 77.6 70.1 Massachusetts -1 47.8 77.6 57.0 New Jersey -1 44.5 76.8 68.5 Pennsylvania -1 51.6 79.3 69.8 Illinois -1 37.7 77.3 71.1 Michigan -1 45.9 77.2 71.1 Iowa -1 33.9 77.7 64.7 Missouri -1 41.5 77.3 70.3 Louisiana -1 46.4 77.5 70.5 Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2009 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)  PEW RESEARCH CENTER 9 The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos  www.pewhispanic.org  References  Suro, Roberto, Richard Fry, and Jeffrey Passel. 2005. Hispanics in the 2004 Election, 2005: Population, Electorate and Voters.  June. Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center.   U.S. Census Bureau. 2010, December 10. U.S. Census Bureau Announces 2010 Census Population Counts -- Apportionment Counts Delivered to President. [Press Release] CB10-CN.93  10 Pew Hispanic Center www.pewhispanic.org  Appendix: Appendix Table A1 – Apportionment and Population Growth, 2000-2010   Share Latino,     2009 Total Population Growth Latino Growth,     2000-2009 Latino Share   of Population Growth,    2000-2009  Change    in Seats % 2000-2010  % 2000-2009 (thousands) % Total (thousands) % United States  15.8 9.7 25,585 37.0 13,051 51.0 Alabama  3.1 7.5 262 95.5 72 27.7 Alaska  6.2 13.3 72 67.8 18 24.5 Arizona 1 30.8 24.6 1,465 56.8 736 50.2 Arkansas  6.0 9.1 216 98.6 86 39.6 California  37.0 10.0 3,090 24.8 2,715 87.9 Colorado  20.3 16.9 723 38.4 283 39.1 Connecticut  12.3 4.9 113 35.6 114 101.3 Delaware  7.2 14.6 102 71.4 27 26.2 District of Columbia  8.8 5.2 28 18.0 8 29.2 Florida 2 21.5 17.6 2,556 48.7 1,306 51.1 Georgia 1 8.3 18.3 1,643 87.5 381 23.2 Hawaii  9.0 12.3 84 32.2 28 33.8 Idaho  10.7 21.1 252 62.5 64 25.3 Illinois -1 15.3 3.3 491 28.7 440 89.5 Indiana  5.4 6.6 343 62.6 134 39.2 Iowa -1 4.3 4.1 82 58.5 48 59.1 Kansas  9.3 6.1 130 39.2 74 56.7 Kentucky  2.6 7.4 272 88.6 53 19.5 Louisiana -1 3.6 1.4 23 50.3 54 234.4 Maine  1.3 4.2 43 86.6 8 18.7 Maryland  7.2 9.0 403 81.0 185 45.8 Massachusetts -1 8.8 3.1 244 35.8 154 62.8 Michigan -1 4.2 -0.6 31 30.6 99 316.3 Minnesota  4.3 7.8 347 56.2 81 23.2 Mississippi  2.3 4.3 107 69.8 28 25.7 Missouri -1 3.4 7.0 392 70.3 83 21.3 Note: States with Congressional gains bolded. States with Congressional losses bolded and italicized. Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2009 ACS and 2010 December Census Release PEW RESEARCH CENTER 11 The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos  www.pewhispanic.org   Appendix Table A1 (continued) – Apportionment and Population Growth, 2000-2010   Share Latino,      2009 Total Population   Growth Latino Growth,     2000-2009 Latino Share of Population Growth,   2000-2009  Change    in Seats % 2000-2010   % 2000-2009 (thousands) % Total (thousands) % Montana  2.9 9.7 73 54.1 10 13.4 Nebraska  8.3 6.7 85 58.7 55 64.9 Nevada 1 26.5 35.1 645 77.8 306 47.5 New Hampshire  2.8 6.5 89 78.6 16 18.1 New Jersey -1 16.7 4.5 293 30.0 336 114.4 New Mexico  45.6 13.2 191 19.6 150 78.9 New York -2 16.8 2.1 565 14.2 407 72.0 North Carolina  7.6 18.5 1,332 88.9 337 25.3 North Dakota  2.0 4.7 5 62.3 5 104.4 Ohio -2 2.8 1.6 190 48.8 106 55.9 Oklahoma  8.2 8.7 236 67.8 122 51.5 Oregon  11.2 12.0 404 55.6 153 37.9 Pennsylvania -1 5.1 3.4 324 63.9 252 77.8 Rhode Island  11.9 0.4 5 38.5 35 715.4 South Carolina 1 4.5 15.3 549 114.4 109 19.8 South Dakota  2.5 7.9 58 84.4 9 16.0 Tennessee  4.1 11.5 607 108.2 134 22.1 Texas 4 36.9 20.6 3,930 37.2 2,480 63.1 Utah 1 12.3 23.8 551 70.3 142 25.7 Vermont  1.5 2.8 13 63.8 4 27.2 Virginia  7.2 13.0 804 71.2 235 29.2 Washington 1 10.3 14.1 770 55.7 246 31.9 West Virginia  1.2 2.5 11 75.8 9 81.4 Wisconsin  5.3 6.0 291 55.0 106 36.5 Wyoming  8.1 14.1 50 38.9 12 24.4 Note: States with Congressional gains bolded. States with Congressional losses bolded and italicized. Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2009 ACS and 2010 December Census Release PEW RESEARCH CENTER 

The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos

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The 2010 Congressional Reapportionment and Latinos

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