This presentation by Todd Ramsden at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's hydrogen technology analysis activities

Ramsden, T.

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Hydrogen Technology Analysis:H2A Production Model UpdateTodd RamsdenNational Renewable Energy LaboratoryMay 15, 2007This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted informationProject ID:  ANP2NREL/PR-560-41547Presented at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation on May 15-18, 2007 in Arlington, Virginia.2Overview• Project start: December 2006• Project end: October 2007• Percent complete: 40%• Stove-piped/siloed analytical capabilities (B)• Inconsistent data, assumptions, and guidelines (C)• Need for improvement in models for better consistency and usability (D)• Need flexible capabilities for unplanned studies & analysis (E)• Total funding: $265K– FY 2007:  $265KTimelineBudgetBarriers Addressed• NETL, DTI, Technology Insights, ANLCollaborators3Objectives• The H2A model aims to make analyses:– Consistent– Transparent– Comparable• Phase II goals:– Reflect current DOE program direction– Reflect best understanding of available technologies• Cost assumptions• Performance assumptions– Simplify model structure and user interface– Improve transparency– Provide new features4Model Approach• Excel spreadsheet• Discounted cash flow rate-of-return analysis• Provides the levelized selling price of hydrogen required to attain a specified internal rate-of-return– i.e., minimum hydrogen price or profited cost (not market price)• Model is meant to be a means of reporting assumptions as well as calculating minimum hydrogen selling price• Transparency is absolute5Revision Approach• Build on existing H2A model• Develop specific revisions to the model structure and user interface• Insure accuracy and detail of specific production cases• Improve model outputs and user-specified inputs• Develop model documentation• Only addressing H2A production, not HD-SAM (H2A delivery)6Model Changes• Simplify underlying spreadsheet structure• Develop user interface and improve user inputs• Develop flat-file output capability• Use Hydrogen Analysis Resource Center data – Hydrogen and physical properties data• Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis • Develop specific new features• Develop import/export capabilities7New Features• Plant size scaling• Automated sensitivity analyses and graphing• Carbon sequestration costs and amounts• WTW/WTP emissions calculations• Maintain 2005 for baseline feedstock and utility prices (AEO2005 High A), but develop toggle to use AEO2007 prices8H2A Cash Flow Modeling ToolSpreadsheet ExamplesFinancialInputsCostInputsReplacement CostsPerformance AssumptionsProcess FlowsheetStream SummaryTitleDescriptionFeedstock and Utility PricesPhysical Property DataStandard Price and Property DataInformationCost AnalysisTechnical AnalysisCost of H2Cost ContributionSensitivityAnalysesResultsFuels, Feedstocks, Other Inputs and Byproducts Units 2001Commercial Natural Gas $(2000)/Nm3 0.31Industrial Natural Gas $(2000)/Nm3 0.18Electric Utility Natural Gas $(2000)/Nm3 0.20Commercial Electricity $(2000)/kWh 0.08Industrial Electricity $(2000)/kWh 0.05Electric Utility Steam Coal $(2000)/kg 0.03Diesel Fuel $(2000)/L 0.36Table A.   Feedstock and Utility Costs Used in H2A Spreadsheet Calculations if escalated prices used (Year 2000 $)Financing InputsCOLOR CODING= Calculated Cells (do not change formulas)= Input Required= Optional Input; To Provide Additional Information On= Information CellsBase Case H2A Guidelines Values in Reference StudyReference $ Year (in half-decade increments) 2000 2000Assumed Start-up Year 2005After-Tax Real IRR (%) 10% 10%Depreciation Type (MACRS, Straight Line) MACRS MACRSDepreciation Schedule Length (No. of Years) 15 20Analysis Period (years) 40 40Plant Life (years) 40 40Assumed Inflation Rate (%) 1.90% 1.90%State Income Taxes (%) 6.0% 6%Press this button to determine the minimum hydrogen selling priceSolve Cash Flow for Desired IRRCategory Cost Contributions$1.424$0.002$0.372$2.408$0.022 $0.000 $0.029$0.000$0.500$1.000$1.500$2.000$2.500$3.000Capital CostsDecommissioning CostsFixed O&MFeedstock CostsOther Raw Material CostsByproduct CreditsOther Variable Costs (including utilities)CategoryContribution to Required Hydrogen SellingPrice ($/kg)9H2A Spreadsheet Features• Color-coded to facilitate user input• Inputs may be either H2A standard inputs or user-defined• Error messages included to alert user when input errors are made• Documentation available for model supportInformation Optional InputUser Input RequiredCalculated Cells10• Reference year (2005 $)• Debt versus equity financing (100% equity)• After-tax internal rate-of-return (10% real)• Inflation rate (1.9%)• Effective total tax rate (38.9%)• Design capacity (varies)• Capacity factor (90% for central [exc. wind]; 70% for forecourt)• Length of construction period (0.5 - 3 years for central; 0 for forecourt)• Production ramp-up schedule  (varies according to case)• Depreciation schedule (MACRS – 20 yrs for central; 7 yrs for forecourt)• Plant life and economic analysis period (40 yrs for central; 20 yrs for forecourt)• Cost of land ($5,000/acre for central; land is rented in forecourt)• Burdened labor cost ($50/hour central; $15/hour forecourt)• G&A rate as % of labor (20%)Key Financial Parameters11H2A Current Technology ResultsProfited Cost Contributions, Current Technology Status, 10%  IRR01234567CentralBiomassCentral Coalwithout CO2sequestrationCentralNatural Gaswithout CO2SeqCentral WindCurrentForecourtElectrolyser1500kgperdayForecourtSMR1500kgperday$/kg Hydrogen    .Feedstock O &MFixed O &M  Cost ContributionCapita l Cost Contribution12Sample Sensitivity AnalysisDistributed Steam Methane Reforming“Tornado” Chart: Single-parameter sensitivity13Production Case Updates• Up-to-date technology assumptions– Performance assumptions, cost assumptions (capital, fixed O&M)• Consistency and robustness– Consistent assumptions, level of detail, process flow diagrams, conversions• Improve transparency– More detailed break down of costs, technologies modeled, components and subsystems used14Case Studies: Central TechnologiesSI Thermo-ChemicalHigh-Temp Steam ElectrolysisImproved EfficiencyImproved EfficiencyFutureN/AFutureCurrentProd RateCurrentProd RateFutureCurrentProd RateHigh Pressure High Pressure Low PressureLow Pressure100 tpd 100 tpdElectrolysis(Wind + Grid)Electrolysis (Grid Electricity)700 tpdN/AConventionalConventional700 tpd250 tpd250 tpdNuclearSulfur-IodineNuclear-Steam ElectrolysisNat Gas Reforming w/ CO2 SequestrationNatural Gas ReformingIntegrated+Membrane Separation+Membrane Separation+Membrane DistinctConventionalConventional155 tpd250 tpd250 tpd250 tpdBiomass GasificationCoal Gasif w/ CO2 Seq & Power Co-ProductionCoal Gasification    w/ CO2 SequestrationCoal GasificationHigh Pressure Low Pressure700 tpd Electrolysis(Low-Temp Nuclear)ConventionalNote:  tpd = tons of hydrogen per day15Case Studies: Forecourt TechnologiesNote: All cases include assessment of current and future technologies.Natural Gas ReformerMethanol ReformerSmall(100 kg/day)Large(1,500 kg/day)Type of StationXXXEthanol ReformerElectrolysisXX XCurrent Technology / Design AssumptionsSMR with PSA cleanup, 6250 psi piston compressors, cascade dispensingComparable to SMR design, low temperatureComparable to SMR designElectrolyzer, 6250 psi piston compressors, cascade storage and dispensingXX16Future Work• Expand model to address hydrogen quality• Address other environmental concerns– e.g., water use and water quality• Develop city-gate/semi-central production cases• Expand available production cases – Coal to Fischer-Tropsch liquids– Forecourt aqueous phase reactor– Advanced bio-derived liquids17• Specific revisions to existing H2A model structure and interface• Add new model features– Plant scaling, carbon sequestration, WTP emissions, automated sensitivity analyses• Improve model outputs and user-specified inputs• Insure accuracy/detail of specific production cases and improve transparency• Develop model documentation• Only addressing H2A production, not HD-SAM (H2A delivery)Project Summary

Hydrogen Technology Analysis: H2A Production Model Update

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Hydrogen Technology Analysis: H2A Production Model Update

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