OBJECTIVE—To provide a simple clinical diabetes risk score and to identify characteristics that predict later diabetes using variables available in the clinic setting as well as biological variables and polymorphisms

Aekplakorn

B. Balkau

B. de Lauzon-Guillain

C. Lange

Clavel-Chapelon

Czernichow

Dundar

E. Eschwege

F. Fumeron

Glumer

J. Tichet

L. Fezeu

Lindstrom

M. Vaxillaire

P. Ducimetiere

P. Froguel

Rathmann

S. Cauchi

S. Czernichow

Saaristo

Schmidt

Schulze

Simmons

Stern

Willi

Wilson

English

PubMed

International audienceObjectives- To provide a simple clinical diabetes risk score; to identify characteristics which predict later diabetes using variables available in clinic, then additionally biological variables and polymorphisms. Research design and methods- Incident diabetes was studied in 1863 men and 1954 women, 30-65 years at baseline, by treatment or by fasting plasma glucose >/= 7.0 mmol/l at 3-yearly examinations over nine years. Sex-specific logistic regression equations were used to select variables for prediction. Results- 140 men, 63 women developed diabetes. The predictive clinical variables were: waist circumference and hypertension in both sexes; for men: smoking, for women: diabetes in the family. Discrimination, as measured by the areas under the receiver operating curves (AROC), were 0.713 for men and 0.827 for women, a little higher than for the FINDRISC score, with fewer variables in the score. Combining clinical and biological variables, the predictive equation included for men: fasting glucose, waist circumference, smoking, square-glutamyltransferase; for women fasting glucose, BMI, triglycerides, diabetes in family. The number of TCF7L2 and IL6 deleterious alleles was predictive in both sexes, but after including the above clinical and biological variables, this variable was only predictive in women (p < 0.03) and the AROC statistics increased only marginally. Conclusions- The best clinical predictor of diabetes is adiposity, and baseline glucose is the best biological predictor. Clinical and biological predictors differed marginally between men and women. The genetic polymorphisms added little to the prediction of diabetes

Balkau, Beverley

Lange, Céline

Fezeu, Leopold

Tichet, Jean

de Lauzon-Guillain, Blandine

Czernichow, Sébastien

Fumeron, Frédéric

Froguel, Philippe

Vaxillaire, Martine

Cauchi, Stéphane

Ducimetière, Pierre

Eschwège, Eveline

HAL Descartes

Predicting diabetes - clinical, biological and genetic approaches: the D.E.S.I.R. Study.

HAL-Paris1

De Lauzon-Guillain, Blandine

Hal-Diderot

HAL-Paris 13

Crossref