The talk includes demographic change and public health challenges during Covid-19 pandemic for an ageing society. It highlights cross-country differences in the number of deaths due to Covid and mortality risk in older people. Moreover, the talk focuses global challenges to protect older people within the existing health systems

Khan, Hafiz T.A.

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Overview of mortality risk of COVID-19 in older people: global perspectiveProfessor Hafiz KhanUniversity of West London Webinar, 04 June 20202-day webinar (3-4 June 2020) organised by Federal Ministry of Health (HEPIQ-C) in Collaboration with Brain Health Initiative Nigeria (BHIN) on the effect of COVID-19 on the health and care management of older adults in West-Africawww.bhin.org• Demographic change• Public health challenges for an ageing society • Cross country differences in number of deaths due to COVID-19• Mortality risk in older people due to COVID-19• Challenges to protect older people within existing health systemOutline of talk% Population by age group, UN 2020 estimate Africa will have a young population for sometime Region 0-14  years 60+ years 80+ yearsEurope 17.57 20.31 2.95North America 21.45 16.25 3.20Asia 30.33 8.65 0.84Africa 42.66 5.18 0.36Sub Saharan Africa 44.32 4.74 0.30Life expectancy at birth (Globally)Burden of diseaseEpidemiological transition – changes in leading causes of deaths, from acute and infectious diseases to chronic and non-communicable ones. Non-communicable diseases are big threats such as Heart disease, Stroke, Cancer, Diabetes, and Dementia.These are also linked with disability, dependency, and long-term care needs. Highly likely to suffer from multi-morbidities.Proportion of life spent in poor health, England (2013 -2015) At birthMalesAt birthFemalesAt age 65MalesAt age 65FemalesLife expectancy 79.5 83.1 18.7 21.1Healthy Life expectancy63.4 64.1 10.5 11.2Number of years in poor health16.1 19.0 8.2 9.9% of life in poor health20.3 22.9 43.9 46.9COVID-19 affects everyone today  COVID-19 pandemic affects all segments of the society, including young adults• Unemployment rate has increased across countries• Remittance has dropped in many countries, affecting families dependent on this• Family support and healthcare services are affected • Elderly are more vulnerable due to ill health• Elderly are largely dependent on financial support system mainly from state and familyAge-specific mortality rate, by age, in ChinaIn China, mortality rates rise significantly among older patients 024681012141618200-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+Over 90% deaths reported to be for 60+ age group China data Co-morbidities were more prevalent in the dead group. Nearly 61% of the patients had comorbidities, About 24% had two or more comorbidities. 02468101214CVD Diabetes RespiratoryDiseaseCancerRateCOVID-19 fatality rate by co-morbidity in China (n=55924)Trends of specific cause of deaths out of all cause (% of people in 60+ age groups)Year Cause China South Africa USA2016CVD 47.51 33.16 32.13Cancer 37.17 12.21 22.60Diabetes 1.72 11.36 2.98Respiratory disease 1.69 8.00 2.52Fatality rates in different Provinces of South Africa 00.511.522.533.54COVID-19 fatality rate in South AfricaAge distribution of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in South Africa 0 5000 10000 15000<4040-4950-5960-6970-7980+54.52%21.00%13.70%6.07%2.76%1.96%CountAge-groupAge distribution of test+ cases 0 50 100 150 200<4040-4950-5960-6970-7980+6.93%10.57%24.96%26.52%19.58%13.34%DeathsAge-groupAge distribution of deaths Age distribution of deaths due to COVID-190.0010.0020.0030.00PercentSouth Africa0.0010.0020.0030.0040.00PercentAge-groupChina0.0010.0020.0030.0040.00<44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75–84 85+PercentAge-groupUSACases and deaths by gender in South Africa 240260280300320Male Female53.4%46.6%CountGenderDistribution of deaths0200040006000800010000120001400016000Male Female42.0%57.3%CountGenderDistribution of test+ casesTime series by date of deaths in EnglandDeaths involving Covid-19 in care homes in England and Wales Number of deaths due to covid-19 in England and Wales 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Mar-20 Apr-20<1 01-04 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-4445-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+91% deaths in 60+ group93% deaths in 60+ groupSource: ONS, 2020Deaths by age and gender in March/April 2020, England and Wales01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00060-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+Number of DeathsAge GroupMarch MaleMarch FemaleApril MaleApril FemaleSource: ONSLeading causes of deaths in England and Wales 2020051015202530354045Dementia andAlzheimerdiseaseIschaemic heartdiseasesCoronavirus Chronic lowerrespiratorydiseasesCerebrovasculardiseasesInfluenza andpneumoniaLung cancerCause of deaths in England and Wales% Deaths in March% Deaths in AprilSource: ONSConclusion• Older people are affected most due to COVID-19.• Over 90% of all deaths are among 60+ age group of people.• Older males are in greater risk than females counterparts. • Pre-exiting health condition is a risk factor for COVID-19. • The elderly becomes extremely vulnerable and isolated.  • Africa seems to have suffered less due to the age structure of its demography and lower rates of obesity.Professor Hafiz T.A. KhanProfessor of Public Health & Statistics The Graduate SchoolUniversity of West London London W5 5RFUnited KingdomEmail: hafiz.khan@uwl.ac.ukQuestions? 

Overview of mortality risk of COVID-19 in older people: global perspective

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Overview of mortality risk of COVID-19 in older people: global perspective

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