Baylis, Matthew

Blagrove, Marcus SC

Caminade, Cyril

Hesson, Jenny C

Metelmann, Soeren

Morse, Andrew P

Solomon, Tom

Turner, Joanne

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES: Correction for "Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015," by Cyril Caminade, Joanne Turner, Soeren Metelmann, Jenny C. Hesson, Marcus S. C. Blagrove, Tom Solomon, Andrew P. Morse, and Matthew Baylis, which appeared in issue 1, January 3, 2017, of Proc Natl Acad Sci USA (114:119-124; first published December 19, 2016; 10.1073/pnas.1614303114). The authors note that Table 1 appeared incorrectly. The corrected table appears below

Caminade, C

Turner, J

Metelmann, S

Hesson, JC

Blagrove, MSC

Solomon, T

Morse, AP

Baylis, M

University of Liverpool Repository

CorrectionENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESCorrection for “Global risk model for vector-borne transmissionof Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015,” by Cyril Cami-nade, Joanne Turner, Soeren Metelmann, Jenny C. Hesson,Marcus S. C. Blagrove, Tom Solomon, Andrew P. Morse, andMatthew Baylis, which appeared in issue 1, January 3, 2017, ofProc Natl Acad Sci USA (114:119–124; first published December19, 2016; 10.1073/pnas.1614303114).The authors note that Table 1 appeared incorrectly. Thecorrected table appears below.www.pnas.org PNAS | February 14, 2017 | vol. 114 | no. 7 | E1301–E1302CORRECTIONwww.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1700746114Table 1. R0 model parameter settings—an index of 1 denotes Ae. aegypti and an index of 2 denotes Ae. albopictusSymbol Description Constant/formula Comments Refs.*a1 Biting rates (per day) a1 = 0.0043T + 0.0943 The linear dependency to temperaturewas based on estimates for Ae. aegyptiin Thailand; biting rates for Ae. albopictuswere halved based on observed feedinginterval data (18)58, 59*a2 a2 = 0.5 × a1ɸ1 Vector preferences (0–1) ɸ1 = 1[0.88–1] Most studies show that Ae. aegyptimainly feeds on humans; Ae. albopictuscan feed on other wild hosts (cats, dogs,swine. . .), and large differences are shownfor feeding preference between urbanand rural settings for this species17, 54, 60–65ɸ2 ɸ2 = 0.5[0.24–1]b1 Transmission probability—vectorto host (0–1)b1 = 0.5[0.1–0.75] Based on dengue parameters—estimatesfrom a mathematical review study66b2 b2 = 0.5[0.1–0.75]β1 Transmission probability—hostto vector (0–1)β1 = 0.1 Recent laboratory experiment studiesgenerally show low transmission efficiency(in saliva) for various vector/ZIKV straincombinations (South America and Africa);estimates from ref. 15 were used in thefinal model version14–16β2 β2 = 0.033*μ1 Mortality rates (0–1 per day) μ1 = 1/(1.22 + exp(−3.05 + 0.72T)) + 0.196if T < 22 °CMortality rates were derived for bothmosquito vectors from publishedestimates based on both laboratoryand field data, and they were cappedto range between 0 and 167*μ2 μ1 = 1/(1.14 + exp(51.4–1.3T)) + 0.192if T ≥ 22 °Cμ2 = 1/(1.1 + exp(−4.04 + 0.576T)) + 0.12if T < 15 °Cμ2 = 0.000339T2 − 0.0189T + 0.336 if15 °C ≤ T < 26.3 °Cμ2 = 1/(1.065 + exp(32.2–0.92T)) + 0.0747if T ≥ 26.3 °C*eip1 EIP (days) eip1 = 1/ν1 = 4 + exp(5.15–0.123T) EIPs for dengue were used becauseestimates for ZIKV were only availableat a single temperature; 50% (100%) ofAe. aegypti mosquitoes were infectedby ZIKV after 5 d (10 d) at 29 °C (7). AnEIP longer than 7 d was reported in ref.15 at similar temperature. Model estimatesfor dengue suggest eip1 ∼ 8–9 d at29 °C. The 1.03 multiplying factor forAe. albopictus was derived from ref. 6768*eip2 eip2 = 1/ν2 = 1.03(4 + exp(5.15–0.123T))m1 Vector to host ratios m1 = 1,000 × prob1 m was derived as the product of aconstant with probability of occurrencespublished at global scale for bothmosquitovectors; Materials and Methods hasadditional details51m2 m2 = 1,000 × prob2r Recovery rate (per day) r = 1/7 69T, temperature.*Parameters that are dynamically simulated in space and time over the whole time period.E1302 | www.pnas.org

Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015 (vol 114, pg 119, 2016)

Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Nino 2015 (vol 114, pg 119, 2016)

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