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The analysis of the proposed abolition of milk quotas for the further development of milk production in Slovenia

Abstract

Diplomsko delo obravnava sistem mlečnih kvot in skupne tržne ureditve na področju mleka v EU, zgodovino mlečnih kvot, njihove značilnosti in vplive ter vzroke za njihovo ukinitev. Preučuje prirejo mleka in stanje kvot v Sloveniji. V diplomskem delu so podrobneje predstavljeni rezultati predhodno opravljenih raziskav, ki se nanašajo na vplive in posledice ukinitve mlečnih kvot. Podatki temeljijo na slovenski ekspertizi in študijah OECD-ja, Generalne direkcije za kmetijstvo EU in FAPRI-ja. Rezultati jasno kažejo, da bo ukinitev kvot vplivala na slovensko prirejo. Pričakuje se znižanje cen surovega mleka in posledično upad pridelovalcev mleka v Sloveniji. Upad pa ne bo drastičen, saj Slovenija že do sedaj ni dosegala dodeljenih mlečnih kvot, hkrati pa so spremembe zadnjih let v prireji mleka prinesle bolj specializirane kmetije z ambicioznejšimi in konkurenčnejšimi pridelovalci. Ti se bodo lažje prilagajali spremembam na trgu. Nekoliko bolj ogroženi bi lahko bili le pridelovalci, ki mleko izvažajo v Italijo. Število manjših kmetij naj bi upadlo, a to ne bo posledica ukinitve kvot. Ukinitev kvot bo pospešila potrebne spremembe v mlečno-predelovalni industriji, predvsem v smeri proizvajanja izdelkov z dodano vrednostjo. V diplomskem delu so tudi povzeti odzivi na ukinitev kvot različnih tržnih mlečnih akterjev ter mnenja posameznih agrarnih ekonomistov.The diploma thesis deals with the system of milk quotas and the common market organization of milk sector in EU, with the history of milk quotas, their characteristics and effects, and the reasons for their abolition. The thesis studies the milk production and the condition of milk quotas in Slovenia. Furthermore, it presents the results of a »prior« research based on the impacts and consequences of the abolition of milk quotas. Data are based on Slovenian expertise and the study of OECD, Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development EU and FAPRI. The results clearly show that the abolition of quotas will affect the Slovenian production. The reduction of prices of raw milk and consequently decrease of milk producers in Slovenia is expected. There will not be a drastic decline, as Slovenia has so far not pursued the allocated milk quotas, while the changes in recent years in milk production have brought more specialized farms with more ambitious and more competitive producers. Those farms can adapt to market changes easily. The producers who export milk to Italy are more likely to be under greater threat. The number of small farms could decrease but not as the consequence of the abolition of quotas. It will facilitate the necessary changes in the dairy-processing industry, primarily in the production of products with high value. The thesis also summarizes the responses to the abolition of milk quotas of various market operators and the opinion of several agricultural economists

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