The day after tomorrow: stress tests, affordability and the roadmap to the four day week

Abstract

Summary of findings • We provide a conservative, ‘worst-case’ scenario for the impacts on profitability of a suddenly-implemented four day week in the private sector. • We find that a four day week with no loss of pay would be affordable for most firms once the initial phase of the Covid-19 crisis has passed. • However, some firms in some industries would experience cashflow problems if changes were implemented too quickly. • A four day week with no loss of pay will most likely be implemented in the public sector before the private sector. • Public sector organisations could influence private sector businesses through procurement policy and other indirect routes. • The process of changing expectations and behavioural norms could be sped up by the creation of more bank holidays, and the reintroduction of pro-union legislation. Even if a four day week in the private sector took longer than expected, a four day week in the public sector could support the UK’s long-term recovery from the Covid-19 crisis

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