This paper attempts to explain the importance of the role of the speculators in determining the 1992
ERM crisis, and the effects that the policy of maintaining external parity had on internal growth. We
focus on a different way through which expectations are formed about the macroeconomic
fundamentals independently of the behaviour of the monetary policy. In the present model, agents’
rational beliefs do not emerge from arbitrary circumstances but only when the value of the exchange
rate, kept under control by the central bank, did not correspond to the expected value and to the current
wide-spread beliefs in the market
