Thesis (M.Eng.Sci.) -- University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 199

Crawley, P. D.

Adelaide Research &amp; Scholarship

fl. io.Optimum Operating PoliciesforMultiple Reservoir SystemsbyP. Crawley, B.E. (Hons)A Thesis for the Degree ofMaster of Engineering ScienceDepartment of Civil Engineering' Urriversity of AdelaideAustraliaApril 1990This Thesis embodies the results of supervisedproject work making up all of the work for thedegree.Aclenowledgements iACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe author wishes to thank his supervisor, Dr. G. Dandy, senior Lecturer inthe Civil Engineering Department of the University of Adelaide, for his manyhours of patient listening, valuable discussion and constructive criticism.Funding for this work was provided by the Australian Water Resources Ad-visory council and the Engineering and water supply Department of southAusbralia through the Partnership Research p.og.u*. In addition, a greatdeal of help was provided by members of the Water Resources Branch and theoperations support Branch of the Engineering and water supply Department.All these people, and any others who helped are thanked for the contributionthey have made to this project.I am extremely grateful to my family and friends who provided encouragementthroughout the project.Statement of Originality iiStaternent of OriginalityThis thesis contains no material which has been accepted for the award ofany other degree or diploma in any university and that, to my knowledgeand belief, the thesis contains no material previously published or written byanother person, except where due reference is made in ttt" text. I consent tothe thesis being made available for photocopying and loan if accepted for theaward of the degree.Philip CrawleyDate ..?re./.+.1.%.Synopsis iiiSynopsisUsing the Adelaide system as a case study, this research work examines thethe use of linear programming as an aid in the identification of optimum op_erating policies for water supply headworks systems. such polici"l are aimedat achieving maximum yield for a given level of reliability. In systems wherea large fraction of the supply is pumped a further objective is to minimisepumping cost.The results obtained for the Adelaide system t savingsin pumping costs can be achieved by the use In sys_tems with little pumping it is expected that a d can beachieved.ContentsAcknowledgementsStatement of OriginalitySynopsisContentsList of FiguresList of Tables1 fntroduction1.1 Reasons for this researchObjectives and Scope of Research WorkMethod of ApproachMathematical ProgrammingIllllrlvxlxlv11.21.37.4122331.5 Summary2 Review of Optimisation TechniquesÐ52.L IntroductionlvContents2.22.3vLinear Programming2.2.1 Deterministic Linear Programming2.2.2 Stochastic Linear Programming2.2.3 Linear Decision Rules2.2.4 Network ModelsDynamic Programming .2.3.r Incremental Dynamic Programming and Discrete Difier-ential Dynamic Programming2.3.2 Incremental Dynamic Programming with Successive Ap_proximations2.3.3 Stochastic Dynamic Programming .2.3.4 Reliability ProgrammingReal Time Operating Models2.4-l California Central Valley project2.4.2 California State Water project2.4.3 Central Arizona Project2.4.4 Tennessee Valley Authority project Z02.4.5 Alcan Saguenay Hydro System ZI2.4.6 Ottawa River Regulation Modelling System 2I2.5 Summary3 The Adelaide ffeadworks System3.1 Introduction8992.4I2t3151616L7T7191920203.2 Description of the Metropolitan AdelaideStorage Systemand22242424Water SupplyContents3.34.44.53.2.L The Southern System .3.2.2 The Northern SystemSummary4.3.2 Constraint EquationsData Input .4.4.1 Catchment Inflow Volumes .4.4.2 System Demands4.4.3 Pump Cost Curves4.4.4 Storage vs. Evaporation Curves4.4.5 SystemParametersLinear Programming Model4.5.1 'Perfect'Mode4.5.2 'Forecast'Mode4.6 Summary31vt2744454545474748525253534 Modelling Technique4.I Introduction4.2 Selection of the Modelling Technique4.3 Formulation of the problem4.3.1 Objective Function.'ft).65586468686866.675 Results and Analysis5.1 Introduction5.2 Historical OperationContents5.3 Linear Programming Model5.3.1 'Perfect'Modevlt70707070748488919393949595965.3.2 'Forecast'Mode .Southern System - Historical and Model ComparisonNorthern System - Historical and Model CornparisonTarget Storage Sensitivity AnalysisInflow Forecasting Sensitivity Analysis5.3.35.3.45.3.55.3.65.4 Summary6 Conclusions and Recommendations6.1 Conclusions6.2 Implications of Research6.3 Recommendations for Further Work6.3.1 Application of Synthetic Data Generation6.3.2 Risk and Reliability AspectsA Description of LINDO packageB Descriptive FIow charts of Linear programming Models 1068.1 Introduction ..1068.2 'Perfect' Mode. ..1078.3 'Forecast'Mode . 108c Linear Programming Moders - List of variabres used 109105C.1 Introduction ..109ContentsC.2 Southern System ModelC.3 Northern System ModelD.2 Model Input Data FilesD.2.1 Southern System ModelD.2.2 Northern System ModelD.3 Model Output Data FilesD.3.1 Southern System ModelD.3.2 Northern System ModelvlllD Linear Programming Models - rnput and output Data For-mats LZLD.1 Introduction . .121109.113..r22122. r32155...155156E Linear Programming Models - Output Details 159E.1 Introduction . 1598.2 Southern System Model Results . 1598.3 Northern System Model Results ..168F Linear Programming Model program Descriptions 180F.1180F.2180...181..183. 185IntroductionSouthern System ModelF.2.1 'Shell' Script ProgramsF.2.2 Fortran ProgramsNorthern System ModelF.3.1 'Shell' Script ProgramsF.3..185ContentsF.3.2 Fortran ProgramsG Linear Programming Model DataG.l Southern System Model DataG.1.1 Reservoir Storage Capacities .G.1.2 Initial Reservoir Storage LevelsIX..187189. 189. 189191194189G.1.3G.1.4G.1.5G.1.6G.1.7G.1.8Target Storage LevelsInflow Exceedance VolumesHistorical Inflow VolumesForecast Demand VolumesHistorical Demand Volumes196Murray Bridge-Onkaparinga pump Cost Curve Coeffi_cients199199201203203. . .205.ztL2L62L6G.1.9 Reservoir Evaporation Coefficients .201G'1'10 Myponga/Huppy valley Trunk Main Limitations . .202G.2 Northern System Model DataG.2.1 Reservoir Storage CapacitiesG.2.2 Initial Reservoir Storage LevelsG.2.3 Target Storage LevelsG.2.4 Inflow Exceedence VolumesG.2.5 Historical Inflow VolumesG.2.6 Forecast DemandsG.2.7 Historical Demands204206G.2.8 Pipeline Pump Cost Curve Coefficients 223ContentsH CorigendaG.2.9 Reservoir Evaporation CoefficientsX224List of Figures1.1 Water Resources Planning Techniques .3.1 The Metropolitan Adelaide Water Storage System3.2 The southern Metropolitan water storage system Layout3.3 The southern Metropolitan water storage system schematic .3.4 The Norihern Metropolitan water storage system schematic .4.263.53.63.73.83.93.10The South Para Water Storage Subsystem LayoutThe Little Para Water Storage Subsystem LayoutThe Torrens Water Storage Subsystem LayoutThe swan Reach stockwell pipeline system schematicThe Swan Reach Stockwell pipeline System LayoutThe Mannum Adelaide Pipeline System Schematic.3.11 The Mannum Adelaide pipeline System Layout28293334353640434354394.14.24.35.1Mannum - Adelaide Pump Cost CurveMount Bold Reservoir - Evaporation Loss vs,The Hope Valley System SchematicStorage curve .5762Southern System Model - Annual Total pumping CostsXI72List of Figures8.2 Model Flowchart - (Forecast'ModeD.l southern system Model - 'LINDO.IN' component Files .D.2 Northern system Model - 'LINDO.IN' component Files .8.1 Murray Bridge-Onkaparinga pumping Behaviour82 Mount Bold Storage Behaviour8.3 Huppy Valley Storage Behaviour8.4 Myponga Storage Behaviour8.5 Clarendon Weir Spill Behaviour8.6 Myponga Spill Behaviour8.7 Supply Distribution Behaviour - Happy Valley . .8.8 Supply Distribution Behaviour - MypongaE-9 Mannum-Adelaide pumping Behaviour8.10 Swan Reach-Stockwell pumping BehaviourE.11 Ex-Millbrook Pumping BehaviourE.12 Warren Storage BehaviourE.13 South Para and Barossa Storage Behaviour5.2 Northern System Model - Annual Total pumping Costs . . . . . T55.3 Northern system Annual Mannum-Adelaide pumping costs TT5.4 Northern system Annual swan Reach-stockwell pumping costs 795.5 Northern System Annual Ex-Millbrook pumping Costs . . . . . g15.6 Southern System - Inflow Forecasting pumping Costs gg8.1 Model Flowchart - ,Perfect, Modexllr07108723160161162..163.164165. 166. t67. . .16917017L172L32173List of FiguresE.14 Little Para Storage Behaviour . .L74xlll..L75.178. t798.15 Millbrook Storage Behaviour .E.16 Kangaroo Creek and Hope Valley Storage Behaviour . . LT68.17 Barossa Weir Spill Behaviour . . .7TTE.18 Little Para Spill BehaviourE.19 Gorge Wei¡ Spill BehaviourList of Tables5.1 Southern System Model - Annual pumping Costs TI5.2 Northern System Model - Annual Total pumping Costs . . . . . T45.3 Northern system Annuar Mannum-Adelaide pumping costs zg5.4 Northern system Annual swan Reach-stockwell pumping costs g05.5 Northern System Annual Ex_Millbrook pumping Costs . . . . . g25.6 Myponga Reservoir Target Storage Sensitivity g55.7 Southern System - Target Storage Level pumping Costs . . . . . g65.8 Southern System - Inflow Forecasting pumping Costs ggG'l southern system Historicar Reservoir storage capacities . . . . 1g0G.2 Southern System - Historical ,Start of year' Reservoir StorageLevels190G-3 southern system - 'current operating' Target storage Levels . 1g1G'4 southern system - '2 Month suppry' Target storage Levels . . . LgzG'5 southern system - '6 week suppry' Target storage Levers . . . . rg2G'6 southern system - '4 week supply' Target storage Levels. . . . rgaG.7 Southern System - g0% Inflow Exceedence Volumes . . . Ig4G.8 Southern System - B0% Inflow Exceedence Volumes . . . f gbxlvList of TablesG.9 southern system - T0% Inflow Exceedence VolumesG.10 southern system - 60% Inflow Exceedence vorumesG'11 Mount Bold and Happy valley Historical Inflow Vorumes (Gr)G.12 Mount Botd and Happy valley Historical Inflow volumes (Gl)G.13 Myponga Historical Inflow Votumes (Gl)G.14 Myponga Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl)G.15 Southern System - Forecast Demand VolumesG'16 Total southern system Historical Demand Volumes (Gl)G'17 Total southern system Historicar Demand Volumes (Gr)XVr95. 196. r97. r97. 198...198199. .200G. 18 Murray Bridge-Onkaparingaficients (1982 Dollars)20020rMonthly Pump Cost Curve Coef-G'19 southern system Reservoir Evaporation coefficients ..201G'20 southern system Demands - Maximum and Minimum MypongaSupply ProportionsG.21 South and Little para Subsystems Historical Reservoir StorageCapacitiesG.22 Tonens subsystem Historical Reservoir storage capacitiesG.23 south and Little para subsystems Historical ,start of year,Reservoir Storage LevelsG.24 Torrens subsystem Historica|start of year, Reservoir storageLevelsG.25 warren Reservoir Historical rarget storage Levels (for all years) 20bG'26 south and Little para subsystems Target storage Levels - . . .205G.27 Torrens Subsystem Target Storage Levels . . . . .206G'28 south and Little para subsystems 90% Inflow Exceedence vol_umes . 207202203203204204List of Tables xviG.29 Torrens Subsystem gTVo Inflow Exceedence Volumes . . . 207G.30 south and Little para subsystems g0% Inflow Exceedence Vol_umesumesumes208G'31 Torrens subsystem 80% Inflow Exceedence volumesG.32 south and Little para subsystems T0To rnflow Exceedence vol_.208. 2r02L3209G.33 Torrens Subsystem T0% Inflow Exceedence Volumes . . .20gG.34 south and Little para subsystems 60% Inflow Exceedence vol_G.35 Torrens Subsyst em 60To Inflow Exceedence Volumes . . . ZLLG.36 Warren Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl) . . .2rrG.37 Warren Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl) . . ZLzG.38 South Para Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl) . . . .zIJG.39 South Para Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl)G.40 Little Para Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl)G.41 Little Para Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl)G.42 Torrens System Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl) . . . . . . Zl5G.43 Torrens System Historical Inflow Volumes (Gl) . . . . . .2L5G.44 Northern System - Forecast Demand Volumes . . ZL6G.45 warren and Lower North Historical Demand volumes (NDl) (Gl)212G.46 warren and Lower North Historical Demand volumes (NDl) (Gr)2rTG.47 Barossa Historical Demand Volumes (ND2) (Gl) . . . . . 21gG.48 Barossa Historical Demand Volumes (ND2) (Gl) . . . . . ZLgG'49 Little Para Historical Demand volumes (ND3) (Gr) . . . zrg. . .214. . .2r4List of TablesG.50 Little Para Historical Demand Volumes (ND3) (Gl) 2r9G.51 Anstey Hill Historical Demand Volumes (ND4) (Gl) . .G.52 Anstey Hill Historical Demand Volumes (ND4) (Gl) . .G.53 Hope Valley Historical Demand Volumes (NDb) (Gl)G.54 Hope Valley Historical Demand Volumes (ND5) (Gl)G.55 Mannum-Adelaide online Historical Demand volumes (Gl) . . .222G.56 Mannum-Adelaide online Histo¡ical Demand volumes (Gl) . . .222G.57 Mannum-Adelaide Monthly pump cost curve coefficients (19g2Dollars) ...22JG.58 swan Reach-stockwell Monthly pump cost curve coefficients(1987Doltars) ....22JG.59 Ex-Millbrooklars)G.60 south Para subsystem Reservoir Evaporation coefficients .G-61 Little Para subsystem Reservoir Evaporation coefficients .G'62 Torrens subsystem Reservoir Evaporation coefficients .xvll220. .22r.221220Monthly Pump Cost Curve Coefficients (19g2 Dol_223224225225

Optimum operating policies for multiple reservoir systems

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Optimum operating policies for multiple reservoir systems

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Optimum operating policies for multiple reservoir systems

Abstract

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Adelaide Research &amp; Scholarship

Adelaide Research & Scholarship