Dodson, Wes

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Nov 3Will Trump Fire Mueller?wes dodsonU N L I K E LY ,  B U T  H E R E  A R E  T H R E E  S C E N A R I O S  T H A T  I N C R E A S E  T H E  C H A N C E SOn Monday, Special Counsel Robert Mueller officially announced the indictments of former campaignchairman Paul Manafort and his business partner Rick Gates, with the charges largely focusing onManafort’s foreign business deals, as well as his role as an “unregistered foreign agent”. Mueller alsorevealed the guilty plea offered by former Trump campaign official George Papadopoulos to the chargeof making false statements to the F.B.I., as covered by U.S.C. 18 § 1001.The indictments of Manafort and Gates came as no surprise following the F.B.I.’s July 26 raid ofManafort’s house. Papadopoulos, however, was much less of a known quantity before the news broke onmonday that not only had he plead guilty to making false statements to the F.B.I., he has also beenworking as a “proactive cooperator” with Bureau for some weeks before the news was released. As CNNreports, Trump was apparently “seething” as he watched the news in his residence, presumably in light ofthe unexpected news of Papadopoulos’ guilty plea.Jay Sekulow, a lawyer representing Trump, said on Tuesday that there was “no basis” at the time forTrump firing Robert Mueller, indicating that President Trump would at least temporarily be safe fromthe “holy hell to pay” that Sen. Lindsey Graham said would accompany his firing of Special CounselRobert Mueller. However, as the torrent of pieces (I suppose mine included) regarding the potentialfiring of Mueller shows, the question of what would be the “basis” for such action persists?V O X  P O P U L IThe important question here is not a particular legal justification for the President firing the SpecialCounsel, such as some type of true misconduct on Mueller’s part, as all indications show that Mueller hascolored within every line he has ever come across, a point further reinforced by the administration’s ownfailure to find significant dirt in his past. Rather, the real “basis” for a Mueller head-rolling is likely toarise from an impulsive reaction on behalf of President Trump.This being said, the political ramifications of such action and the strong voices within the White Houseurging against such action likely make the Special Counsel’s job reasonably secure. Nonetheless, as theinvestigation proceeds, there are at least three situations that increase the marginal chance that PresidentDonald Trump, via a bloodletting of U.S. Attorneys, fires Special Counsel Robert Mueller.1. A Personal Slight against President TrumpL I K E L I H O O D  O F  O C C U R R I N G :  L O WL I K E L I H O O D  O F  R E S U L T I N G  I N  A  F I R I N G :  M E D I U MThe first situation likely to result in Trump firing the Special Counsel is a personal malign, or perceivedmalign, on the behalf of Robert Mueller on the action or person of the President, two entities whichPresident Trump is not prone to separating. Such a slight is unlikely to spring from the mouth ofMueller, who is known to remain out of the spotlight and above the politics, making the likelihood ofsuch an event occurring. However, the political cover that it would lend to the President, who wouldinevitably lambaste both the Special Counsel and his investigation as a personally motivated vendetta inthe wake of such a comment, makes the likelihood of this situation resulting in a firing substantial. Thisscenario is highly consistent with the events of Donald Trump’s firing of James Comey, which insidereporting showed resulted, at least in part, from Trump being miffed at Comey’s “mildly nauseous”comment on the Senate floor.2. An Indictment of Someone Close to TrumpL I K E L I H O O D  O F  O C C U R R I N G :  L O W - M E D I U ML I K E L I H O O D  O F  R E S U L T I N G  I N  A  F I R I N G :  M E D I U MMonday’s indictments indicate that Mueller is attempting to work his way up the chain of the Trumpcampaign, piling myriad charges on Manafort, likely in an attempt to squeeze him for information. Thismeans that more indictments are likely to be handed down, with Michael Flynn as the front-runner forthe next to face charges. In the face of a quickly progressing investigation, the likelihood of a closeassociate or family member rises, with Donald Trump Jr.’s June 2016 meeting with a Russian lawyermaking him the most likely of this group to be in Mueller’s crosshairs. In conjunction with Donald Jr.,U.S.mueller, trump, politics, usW E S  D O D S O NIvanka Trump and Jared Kushner were closely involved with the Trump campaign, placing them withinthe scope of Mueller’s probe. However, this scenario would not offer the President strong political cover,making it difficult to imagine this being something that Republicans on the Hill could stomach.Nevertheless, Trump’s unpredictability and ability to disregard norms that would potentially restrict hisability to exercise his power makes it conceivable that this scenario would increase Trump’s likelihood offiring Robert Mueller.3. Conservative Media Support for the Firing of Robert Mueller.L I K E L I H O O D  O F  O C C U R R I N G :  M I D - H I G HL I K E L I H O O D  O F  R E S U L T I N G  I N  A  F I R I N G :  L O WRecent pieces indicate that conservative voices in the media are rallying behind the President, and moreimportantly against Robert Mueller. This, in conjunction with the story offered by the recent news of theDemocrat commissioned Steele Dossier, is likely to create an environment wherein Trump is notconfronted with the drastic penalties of firing Mueller.However, this scenario does not provide the same kinds of emotional triggers that have been known todrive the President to decisive action in the past, and is unlikely to directly spur him to action. Ifconservative media voices, particularly those of the more moderate Republican stripe, to support thePresident firing Robert Mueller, the likelihood of some other trigger spurring him to action becomesmore significant.Related PostsNov 26 Care about your career? Don't specialize.Nov 3 Hollywood Hypocrisy: Devilry in the City ofAngelsNov 1My Addendum to Trump's RazorFeb 21The Republican Party's NoodleProblemWes Dodson is a co-founder of The Texas Orator and a contributing writer on State and NationalPolitics. He champions constitutional liberties and the exercise of reason, all while juggling schooland an expensive podcast addiction.Leave a commentMar 6GOP Minority Undermines Rule ofLawThe Texas Orator is a nonpartisan, peer-reviewed political publication that was founded and is maintained byUniversity of Texas at Austin students. We value thorough analysis in our articles and strive to protect theideals of free speech and unhindered access to information on campus and nationwide. We seek to keep thestudent body informed of the implications of ever-changing political climates, both domestically and abroad,from a range of voices and perspectives.Join Our CommunitySubscribe to our weekly newsletter!Email Address  SUBMITD O N A T EPowered by Squarespace

Will Trump Fire Mueller?

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Will Trump Fire Mueller?

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