Reinau, Kristian Hegner

    Aalborg UniversitetCellular Automata and Urban DevelopmentReinau, Kristian HegnerPublished in:NORDGI : Nordic Geographic InformationPublication date:2006Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink to publication from Aalborg UniversityCitation for published version (APA):Reinau, K. H. (2006). Cellular Automata and Urban Development. In P. Takala (Ed.), NORDGI : NordicGeographic Information: proceedings from the Nordic GIS Conference, Helsinki 2006 (pp. 75-80). National LandSurvey of Finland.General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright ownersand it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.            ? Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.            ? You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain            ? You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ?Take down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us at vbn@aub.aau.dk providing details, and we will remove access tothe work immediately and investigate your claim.Downloaded from vbn.aau.dk on: April 29, 2017The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCellular Automata and Urban DevelopmentKristian Hegner ReinauM.Sc. in GeographyPh.D. student and fixed-term lecturer at Aalborg UniversityThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2nd – 4th of October 2006The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauSustainable Urban Development-Where are we going?”In general, it is presently recognised that, in order to respond to the idea of sustainability, urban areas have to maintain an internal equilibrium balance between economic activity, population growth, infrastructure and services, pollution, waste, noise, etc in such a way that the urban system and its dynamics evolve internally in harmony, limiting, as much as possible, impacts on the natural environment” (Barredo et. al. 2004, p.65) How will cities evolve in the future? 1950s: The first mathematical urban models. 1990s: Urban models based on cellular automata. Urban models based on Cellular Automata Method tested on more than 50 cases, but applications to real cities are still quite rare. Method mainly tested on relatively large American and European cities, such as San Francisco, Cincinnati and Dublin. Not tested in a Danish context (fall 2005). The research question: Can CA based urban models simulate the growth of relatively small Danish cities? Case study Herning (24757 inhabitants). The consequence of scale? Can CA based urban models simulate the dynamics that are the driving forces behind contemporary urban growth in post-industrial and post-modern cities?The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauWhat is Cellular Automata? Artificial Life ”An automaton is a machine that processes information, proceeding logically, inexorably performing its next action after applying data received from outside itself in light of instructions programmed within itself”(Torrens 2000, p. 15)Example: The dynamic simulated in the example is, that if a cell has 1 or more cells in itsMoore neighborhood that are alive, then the cell will become alive in the next generation.X X XX X XX X XXStarting point 1. generationX X X X XX X X X XX X X X XX X X X XX X X X X2. generationThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe dynamics simulated in the Herning model Trigger factors behind urban development: Economy, Technology, Demography, Politics, Society, Culture and Environment Which of these “trigger factors” should be simulated? The exemplary model in the CA literature is (White et. al. 1997)’s model of Cincinnati (1840-1960), which simulates dynamics described in classical economic location theory and classic urban theories. From an industrial society to an information society! Is a model that simulates dynamics describes in classical economic location theory and classical urban theories capable ofsimulating the development of contemporary Danish cities? The CA based model for Herning simulated three dynamics: Buildings are build near existing buildings. Buildings are build near infrastructure. Some barriers have slowed development in some areas.The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe CA model of Herning Programmed in Modelbuilder in ArcGIS 9.0 Uses 7 rastermodels as input: “Herning 1900”, “Road”, “Railway”, “Railway Station”, “Wetlands”, “Lake” and “Stochastic variable”.The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of Herning Bygnings og BoligRegister, BBR (Buildings and housing register) Vectorpointmodel containing information about the location of buildings and someof their attributes. Buildings constructed before a given date can be identified. Problem: Demolished buildings “invisible”! Vector point model converted to raster model with 100x100m cells by “features to raster” operation, showing “urban areas”.The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of Herning “Holes” in the citymodel closed with the following Map Algebra expression: Con(([Rastermodel]  == 1), 1, (Con((focalsum([Rastermodel], rectangle, 3, 3)  > 4), 1, 0)))The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of Herning Dispersed “urban areas” in the citymodel deleted with the following Map Algebra expression: Con(([Rastermodel]  == 0), 0, (Con((focalsum([Rastermodel], rectangle, 3, 3) < 5), 0, 1)))The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe development of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCA based model of Herning- The Road modelThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCA based model of Herning- The Railway modelThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCA based model of Herning- The Railway Station modelThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCA based model of Herning- The Wetlands modelThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCA based model of Herning- The Lake modelThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauHow does the models work?Extended MooreNeighbourhood Calculation of potential deriving from each input model, City as example City Zone 1 Map Algebra Expression:  focalsum([Input_City], rectangle, 3, 3) * 0.2 City Zone 2 Map Algebra Expression: focalsum([Input_City], irregular, D:\CA_GIS\z2kernel.txt) * 0.1 City Potential = City Zone 1 + City Zone 2The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauHow does the models work? Map Algebra expression for calculation of city-cells after 1. generation Con (((([Input_City] > 0.5) OR ((([Random] / 2) + [CityPot] + [RoadPot] + [WetlandsPot] + [LakePot] + [RailwayPot] + [RailwayStationPot]) > 2.0 ))),  1,  0)Extended MooreNeighbourhoodModel Weight inner zone of Neighbourhood Weight outer zone of NeighbourhoodCity 0,3 0,15Road 0,2 0,1Railway Station 0,2 0,1Railway -0,2 -0,1Barriers with constant effect on developmentWetlands -2Lake -2Size of stochastic variable  0 < X < 0,5 Potential needed for city development: 2.0The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauCalibration of weights and boarder valuesThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauThe simulation of HerningThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauConclusion The CA model were able to simulate the development of Herning in the period 1900-1960 relatively precisely. Industrial city? After 1960 there is a larger difference between the model and the real city Post-industrial city? Public Planning since the 1970’s, Gullestrup in the case area is one of few totally planned cities in Denmark. The three simple dynamics were able to model the development of the city surprisingly well! Buildings are build near existing buildings. Buildings are build near infrastructure. Some barriers have slowed development in some areas. CA based urban models can simulate relatively small cities! It is worth while to examine wheter it is possible to incorporate planning and new urban dynamics into CA based urban models!The Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauFurther Work Development of better models Models which simulates more dynamics Models which builds on better data Theory of science What is the scientific foundation of simulating future phenomena’s in a societal context?  Is it possible scientifically to predict phenomenons in a social context? Comment are welcome! reinau@plan.aau.dk Download project in Danish 140 pages from www.plan.aau.dk/~reinauThe Nordic GIS Conference in Helsinki 2006                                           Cellular Automata and Urban Development - Kristian Hegner ReinauReferences (Barredo et. al 2004): José Barredo, Luca Demicheli, Carlo Lavalle, Marjo Kasanko and Niall McCormick ”Modelling future urban scenarios in developing contries: an application case study in Lagos, Nigeria”. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, volume 32, side 65-84, 2004. (Torrens 2000): Paul M Torrens “Paper 22: How cellular models of urban systems work (1. Theory), Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis”. Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 2000. (White et. al. 1997): R. White, G. Engelen and I. Uljee ”The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics”. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, volume 24, side 323-343, 1997. 

Cellular Automata and Urban Development

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Cellular Automata and Urban Development

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