Leekley, Faculty Advisor, Robert

Slattery, \u2709, Kevin

Digital Commons @ Illinois Wesleyan University

Illinois Wesleyan UniversityDigital Commons @ IWUJohn Wesley Powell Student ResearchConference 2009, 20th Annual JWP ConferenceApr 18th, 10:00 AM - 11:00 AMPredicting Major League Talent Through the First-Year Player DraftKevin Slattery, '09Illinois Wesleyan UniversityRobert Leekley, Faculty AdvisorIllinois Wesleyan UniversityFollow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/jwprcThis Event is brought to you for free and open access by The Ames Library, the Andrew W. Mellon Center for Curricular and FacultyDevelopment, the Office of the Provost and the Office of the President. It has been accepted for inclusion in Digital Commons @ IWU bythe faculty at Illinois Wesleyan University. For more information, please contact digitalcommons@iwu.edu.©Copyright is owned by the author of this document.Kevin Slattery, '09 and Robert Leekley, Faculty Advisor, "Predicting Major League Talent Through the First-Year PlayerDraft" (April 18, 2009). John Wesley Powell Student Research Conference. Paper 3.http://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/jwprc/2009/oralpres/3THE JOHN WESLEY POWELL STUDENT RESEARCH CONFERENCE - APRIL 2009 Oral Presentation 01 .3 PREDICTING MAJOR LEAGUE TALENT THROUGH THE FIRST -YEAR PLAYER DRAFT Kevin Slattery and Robert Leekley* Economics Department, Illinois Wesleyan University The Major League Baseball first-year player draft is a relatively unexplored topic. Until two years ago it was not even televised, even though other major sports drafts like basketball and football are major television events. I predict the probability of reaching the major leagues and the probability of a player "making it big" in the major leagues for a player drafted based on a series of variables, like draft position, whether a player is left-handed, and the schooling the amateur has received. This should help a team determine which players are most risky, and which players are most likely to make it to and succeed in the major leagues. The conceptual framework underlying my work is human capital theory. A multivariate regression model is used to predict the probability that a drafted player will make it to the major leagues. The major results of the study are that draft rank is the most important variable; scouts are effective at . identifying and ranking talent. The other important finding is that college players are significantly more likely to make the major leagues, but high school players are more likely to make it big and become superstars in the major leagues. 

Predicting Major League Talent Through the First-Year Player Draft

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Predicting Major League Talent Through the First-Year Player Draft

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