Automated Forward Modeling (AFM) is an inversion technique based on magnetic data alone, which can indicate physical parameters associated with electrojets. From perturbations along a meridian, the total electric current crossing the meridian may be determined, as well as the latitudes between which it flowed. The technique is based on nonlinear optimization of the parameters of a forward model. It is possible to compare model output to the original input to ensure that the routine has functioned well and that output parameters are reliable and presumably have physical meaning.
Characteristic behaviors of substorms are readily seen in modeling output: the
current strengthens rapidly and considerably at an expansive phase onset,
following a growth phase during which the electrojet borders move equatorward,
usually with some strengthening of current. At onset the poleward border is
often seen to move poleward rapidly. Poleward border activity may be noted then
and also at other times. After an onset, the recovery phase is often marked by a
retreat of the equatorward border, indicating the well-known shrinkage of the
auroral oval then.
These complete cycles of activity are absent in sawtooth events. Our output
parameters can be diagnostic of onsets and useful in determining their location
and role in sawtooth events. These have many of the characteristics of expansive phase onsets, but maximum poleward expansion of the poleward border is followed by equatorward movement reminiscent of a growth phase. Since this is correlated with the interplanetary magnetic field remaining southward, the difference from common expansive phase phenomenology may simply be the lack of a recovery phase
