Pregled metodologije konjunkturnih istraživanja zemalja Europske unije i hrvatsko iskustvo

Abstract

Business and consumer surveys (B-C-S) are qualitative economic surveys designed to deal with judgments and expectations of economic agents and consumers. They are a necessary complement to the quantitative statistical surveys. Information from business and consumer surveys serve as a subset of information set important for evaluation of the state of business climate and activities, economic trends and forecasting. B-C- S information are summarised in the form of various indicators such as: industrial confidence indicator, service confidence indicator, consumer confidence indicator, construction confidence indicator, retail trade confidence indicator, economic sentiment indicator. There is the joint harmonised EU programme of (B-C-S) and it is carried out by member states. There is a harmonized EU methodology, but differences exist in applied sample designs and methods of sample selection, treatment of non-responses, seasonal adjustment methods etc. The surveys are conducted by various organisations: statistical institutes, statistical bureau offices, specialised firms, national banks. In this paper comparatively and detailed are presented the main methodological characteristics of B-C-S of EU member countries and candidate countries. B-S is carried out in Croatia from 1995. The applied methodology of Croatian B-C-S is highly harmonised with those of EU methodology. There is the problem of relatively high no-response rate. It is necessary to make some questionnaire revisions. Monthly based surveys should be introduced as well as the investment test. In order to improve the Croatian B-C-S it is necessary to ensure the organisational and financial stability of conducting the surveys.business surveys, sample design, sampling frame, response rate, research institutions, seasonal adjustment methods