A hydrometric analysis over the available historical record (1973-2010) was conducted for the Moose Jaw River station near Burdick in south-central Saskatchewan, Canada. Frequency analyses on mean monthly, average annual, monthly minimum/maximum, and annual minimum flows generally yielded poor fits, and problems with negative flow predictions for mid- to long-term return periods regardless of distribution type. The annual maximum streamflow time series is reasonably well-described by linear and log Pearson Type III distributions, although both distribution types underestimate extreme maximum flows. Mann-Kendall linear time series analysis on mean monthly and annual streamflows reveals no trend in annual water yields, nor in mean monthly flows between March and October. There is ambiguity as to whether statistically significant negative time trends in overwinter period mean monthly flows and monthly minimum/maximum flows for the hydrometric station are real or whether they represent a change in measurement technique/calibration during the mid-/late-1980s

Kaya Forest

Sierra Rayne

English

Nature Precedings

• annual hydrograph is typical of prairie rivers: spring freshet 
maximum during April with extended low-flow period from mid-
summer through the following early spring (Figure 1)
A hydrometric analysis of the Moose Jaw River near Burdick (05JE006):
Temporal trends and frequency analyses for mean, minimum, and maximum flows 
Sierra Raynea and Kaya Forestb
a Chemologica Research, PO Box 74, 318 Rose Street, Mortlach, Saskatchewan, Canada, S0H 3E0; e-mail: rayne.sierra@gmail.com
b Department of Environmental Engineering, Saskatchewan Institute of Applied Science and Technology, Palliser Campus, PO Box 1420, 600 6th Avenue NW,
Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, Canada, S6H 4R4; e-mail: kaya.forest@siast.sk.ca
Introduction Results and Discussion
Methods
Results and Discussion
References
[1] Water Supply Study: Moose Jaw River and Lower Souris River Watersheds - Phase 1 (Draft Report, July 2008). KGS Group: Regina, SK, Canada, 2008. [2] Background Report: Moose Jaw River Watershed. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority: Moose Jaw, SK, Canada, 2005. [3] Moose Jaw River Watershed: Source Water Protection Plan. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority: Moose Jaw, SK, Canada, 2006. [4] Mann, H.B. “Non-parametric tests against trend.” Econometrica, 1945, 13, 245-259. [5] Kendall, M.G.  Rank Correlation Methods. Charles Griffin: London, UK, 1975. [6] Salmi, T.; Maatta, A.; Anttila, P.; Ruoho-Airola, 
T.; Amnell, T. Detecting Trends of Annual Values of Atmospheric Pollutants by the Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope Estimates. Finnish Meteorological Institute: Helsinki, Finland, 2002. [7] Khaliq, M.N.; Ouarda, T.B.M.J.; Gachon, P.; Sushama, L.; St.-Hilaire, A. “Identification of hydrological trends in the presence of serial and cross correlations: A review of selected methods and their application to annual flow regimes of Canadian rivers.” Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 268, 117-130. [8] Khaliq, M.N.; Ouarda, T.B.M.J.; Gachon, P. “Identification of temporal trends in annual and seasonal low flows occurring in Canadian rivers: The 
effect of short- and long-term persistence.” Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 369, 183-197. [9] Rayne, S.; Forest, K. “Temporal trends in annual water yields from the Mackenzie, Saskatchewan-Nelson, Churchill, and  Missouri-Mississippi River watersheds in western and northern Canada.” Nature Precedings, 2010, doi: 10.1038/npre.2010.5342.1. [10] Wanielista, M.P.; Kersten, R.; Eaglin, R.D. Hydrology: Water Quantity and Quality Control (2nd edition). Wiley: New York, 1996.
Results and Discussion
Figure 1. Annual hydrograph for the Moose Jaw River near 
Burdick (05JE006). Values represent mean monthly streamflows 
(blue), mean monthly minimum flows (red), and mean monthly 
maximum flows (green) over the available hydrometric record 
(1973-2010).
• no-flow conditions on the river routinely occur (Table 1):
• 16/38 years (42%) have at least one occurrence of Q=0 m3/s
• overwinter zero-flow conditions most common
• mid-/late-summer no-flow also frequent
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
24% 32% 18% 8% 3% 8% 11% 15% 13% 11% 5% 3%
Table 1. Percentage of zero-flow conditions occurring at least 
once per month over the available hydrometric record (1973-
2010) for the Moose Jaw River near Burdick (05JE006).
• Mann-Kendall analysis on mean monthly and annual streamflows 
reveals no trend (p>0.05) in annual water yields, nor in mean 
monthly flows between March and October
• mean monthly streamflows during January (-0.0028 [-0.0043 to -
0.0010; 95% CL]; p<0.01), February (-0.0049 [-0.0070 to -
0.0031]; p<0.001), November (-0.0040 [-0.0067 to -0.0014]; 
p<0.01), and December (-0.0036 [-0.0049 to -0.0016]; p<0.01) 
appear to be declining (values in m3/s/year)
• however, during these months, there appears to have been a 
regime-shift in monthly flows between the 1973-1986/87 and 
1987/88-2010 periods (Figure 2)
• mean monthly streamflows during these months are 
systematically higher in the period 1973-1987 than between 
1988-2010 for all four months (one-way ANOVA; values in 
m3/s): Jan., 0.126 vs. 0.016 (p<0.001); Feb., 0.192 vs. 0.053 
(p<0.01); Nov., 0.222 vs. 0.099 (p<0.01); Dec., 0.130 vs. 
0.037 (p<0.001)
• pattern and magnitude of the mean monthly streamflow 
differences between the two time periods suggests non-natural 
cause, potentially a change in flow measurement 
technique/calibration under ice conditions
• find similar results for the time series of monthly maximum and 
minimum streamflows
• also observe different monthly minimum/maximum flow 
patterns and magnitudes between 1973-1987 and 1988-2010 
during winter
• no significant temporal trends in monthly maximum flows 
between March and November or in annual maximum flow 
(values in m3/s/year):
• flows decreasing during January (-0.0040 [-0.0065 to              
-0.0014]; p<0.01), February (-0.0068 [-0.0115 to -0.0030]; 
p<0.001), and December (-0.0053 [-0.0075 to -0.0028]; 
p<0.001)
• no significant temporal trends in monthly minimum flows between 
April and November (values in m3/s/year):
• annual minimum flow decreasing (-0.0001 [-0.0002 to 
0.0000]; p<0.001)
• flows decreasing during January (-0.0014 [-0.0025 to -
0.0005]; p<0.001), February (-0.0028 [-0.0042 to -0.0005]; 
p<0.001), March (-0.0036 [-0.0054 to -0.0021]; p<0.001), and 
December (-0.0020 [-0.0030 to -0.0005]; p<0.01)
• ambiguity in whether statistically significant negative time trends 
in overwinter mean monthly flows and monthly 
minimum/maximum flows for the Moose Jaw River near Burdick 
(05JE006) hydrometric station between 1973 and 2010 are “real” 
or whether they represent a change in measurement 
technique/calibration during the mid-/late-1980s
• frequency analyses on mean monthly, average annual, monthly 
minimum/maximum, and annual minimum flows generally yielded 
poor fits, and problems with negative flow predictions for mid- to 
long-term return periods regardless of distribution type
• annual maximum streamflow time series is reasonably well-
described by Pearson Type III and log Pearson Type III 
distributions (Figure 3)
Figure 3. Pearson Type III and log Pearson Type III frequency 
distribution fits (red lines) for the available 1973-2010 annual 
maximum streamflow time series (blue lines) at the Moose Jaw 
River near Burdick (05JE006) hydrometric station.
• both distribution types underestimate extreme maximum flows, 
and are thus not conservative (other distribution types examined 
also underestimate extreme maximum flows)
Return period
(years)
Pearson Type III Log Pearson Type III
wet year dry year wet year dry year
2 17.9±12.7 18.5±8.4
3 36.9±33.9 9.1±12.6 42.2±15.4 6.9±3.6
5 67.9±48.0 6.6±27.4 80.8±23.0 2.3±1.4
10 119.1±52.5 6.4±29.7 142.0±48.1 0.6±0.5
25 198.9±60.0 4.4±8.7 225.9±135.4 0.1±0.2
50 266.5±88.9 0.0 285.6±240.8 0.0
100 339.4±138.2 0.0 339.0±376.2 0.0
200 417.0±202.3 0.0 385.1±537.4 0.0
Table 2. Estimated return periods (±std. dev.) for the annual 
maximum streamflow at the Moose Jaw River near Burdick 
(05JE006) hydrometric station using the Pearson Type III and log 
Pearson Type III distributions.
• using these fits, the 2009 maximum flow (17.3 m3/s) was a 1-in-2 
year event, the 2010 maximum flow (46.4 m3/s) was a 1-in-3/4 
year event, and the drought year of 1988 maximum flow (0.02 
m3/s) was a 1-in-50 year event
• streamflow data was obtained from the online Environment 
Canada/Water Survey of Canada database 
(http://www.wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/index_e.html)
• the Moose Jaw River near Burdick (05JE006) hydrometric station 
has been in operation since 1944
• between 1944 and 1952, seasonal flow data was obtained via 
manual methods
• in 1953, a flow recorder was installed and measurements 
continued to be seasonal until 1972
• starting in 1973, continuous recorded flow measurements were 
obtained at 05JE006, allowing for a complete hydrometric record 
suitable for time series analysis available up to the present (2010 
is the latest year for which a complete flow record exists)
• 05JE006 is the only active hydrometric station monitored by 
Environment Canada in the Moose Jaw River watershed: 
latitude, 50°24'1" N; longitude, 105°23'52" W
• the watershed upstream of 05JE006 is classified as regulated 
with a gross drainage area of 9230 km2 and an effective drainage 
area of 3470 km2
• statistical analyses of streamflow data were conducted using the 
nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for the trend and the 
nonparametric Sen’s method for the magnitude of the trend [4-9]
• frequency analyses were performed with DISTRIB 2.13 
Statistical Distribution Analysis software [10]
• the Moose Jaw River watershed is located in south-central 
Saskatchewan, Canada
• Thunder Creek is the main tributary to the Moose Jaw River and 
joins the river in the city of Moose Jaw
• the river is the largest tributary of the Qu’Appelle River, and water 
from this hydrologic system progressively flows into the 
Assiniboine River, the Red River, Lake Winnipeg, and finally the 
Nelson River, which empties into Hudson Bay and the Arctic 
Ocean
• the regional climate is semi-arid, averaging ~380 mm/year 
precipitation (40%:60% snow:rain) with high evaporation (~980 
mm/year) [1-3]
Map of the Moose Jaw River watershed
(adapted from http://www.swa.ca/Stewardship/WatershedPlanning/Default.asp?type=MJWS)
05JE006
Mortlach
Caronport
Thunder Creek Moose Jaw River
Thunder Creek/Moose Jaw River
watershed boundary
Moose Jaw River watershed boundary
Moose Jaw
Drinkwater
Rouleau
Milestone
Avonlea
Pangman
Figure 2. Temporal trends in mean monthly streamflows during 
January, February, November, and December for the Moose Jaw 
River near Burdick (05JE006) hydrometric station between 1973 
and 2010. Best-fit parametric linear regressions (and associated 
statistical significance) are shown for the periods 1973-1987 
(solid lines) and 1988-2010 (dashed lines).
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[2] Background Report: Moose Jaw River Watershed. Saskatchewan Watershed Authority: Moose Jaw, SK,

A hydrometric analysis of the Moose Jaw River near Burdick (05JE006): Temporal trends and frequency analyses for mean, minimum, and maximum flows

AbstractA hydrometric analysis over the available historical record (1973-2010) was conducted for the Moose Jaw River station near Burdick in south-central Saskatchewan, Canada. Frequency analyses on mean monthly, average annual, monthly minimum/maximum, and annual minimum flows generally yielded poor fits, and problems with negative flow predictions for mid- to long-term return periods regardless of distribution type. The annual maximum streamflow time series is reasonably well-described by linear and log Pearson Type III distributions, although both distribution types underestimate extreme maximum flows. Mann-Kendall linear time series analysis on mean monthly and annual streamflows reveals no trend in annual water yields, nor in mean monthly flows between March and October. There is ambiguity as to whether statistically significant negative time trends in overwinter period mean monthly flows and monthly minimum/maximum flows for the hydrometric station are real or whether they represent a change in measurement technique/calibration during the mid-/late-1980s.</jats:p

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A hydrometric analysis of the Moose Jaw River near Burdick (05JE006): Temporal trends and frequency analyses for mean, minimum, and maximum flows

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