Equilibrium or Simple Rule at Wimbledon? An Empirical Study

Abstract

We follow Walker and Wooders’(2001) empirical analysis to collect and study a broader data set in tennis, including male, female and junior matches. We find that there is mixed evidence in support of the minimax hypothesis. Granted, the plays in our data pass all the tests in Walker and Wooders (2001). However, we argue that not only the test on equal winning probabilities may lack power, but also the current serve choices may depend on past serve choices, the performance of past serve choices, or the time that the game has elapsed. We therefore examine the role that simple rules may play in determining the plays. For a significant number of top tennis players, some simple low-information rules outperform the minimax hypothesis. By comparing junior players with adult players, we find that the former tend to adopt simpler rules. The result of comparison between female and male players is inconclusiveminimax, learning, low-information