A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk

Abstract

This paper incorporates the systematic risk of regime shifts into a general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model shows that there is a new source of time-variation in bond term premiums in the presence of regime shifts. This new component is a regime-switching risk premium that depends on the covariations between discreet changes in marginal utility and bond prices across different regimes. A closed-form solution for the term structure of interest rates is obtained under an affine model using log-linear approximation. The model is estimated by Efficient Method of Moments. The regime-switching risk is found to be statistically significant and mostly affect the long-end of the yield curveThe Term Structure, General Equilibrium, Markov Regime Shifts