Fluctuaciones ciclicas y raices unitarias en la economia espanola, 1850-1990

Abstract

This paper analyses the role of shocks in Spanish economic growth over the period 1850-1990. In the existence of a unit root, the trend is stochastic, which implies that the series has a long memory, and shocks have persistent effects. As a result, the series does not return to its former path following a random disturbance, and the level of the series shifts permanently. On the other hand, if the series does not contain a unit root, the trend is deterministic and the series has a short memory. In this case a shock has no permanent impact and the series returns to its steady trend after the shock. Estimation results provide evidence that the log of real GDP has a unit root, but the existence of a unit root on real per capita GDP is uncertain.business cycles, economic fluctuations, unit roots