Productivity of ecosystems surrounding a city is important for supporting its activities in a sustainable way. The total terrestrial net primary production (NPP) shows biosphere potential to supply primary food energy source for all non-autotrophic species including humans. Humans appropriate approximately 20% of NPP, in average. Even in the relatively well-populated regions of Siberia, NPP per capita exceeds the average level by several times suggesting the window of opportunity for achieving sustainable development. (3 pages, 1086 words, 2 maps)&#xd;&#xa

Gen Inoue

Georgii A. Alexandrov

Tsuneo Matsunaga

English

Nature Precedings

Available at Nature Precedings (http://precedings.nature.com) 
 
1 
 
BIOSPHERIC CONTEXT OF SIBERIAN DEVELOPMENT 
Georgii A. Alexandrov1,2, Gen Inoue3, Tsuneo Matsunaga1 
1 
National Institute for Enviromental Studies, Onogawa 16-2, Tsukuba, Japan 
2 
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevsky 3, Moscow, Russia 
3 
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Motoyama, Kyoto, Japan 
 
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to G.A.A. (g.alexandrov@nies.go.jp) 
 
 
The Soviet planners are sometimes criticized for distorting economic geography by allocating cities, factories 
and universities in Siberia that formed a burden for the market economy of the modern Russia. Such 
criticism leads to conclusion that Russia must contract its economic geography, concentrate its population, 
improve connection between cities, and even move them to warmer, more productive places
1
.  Here, we 
evaluate the pathways for Siberian development in the biospheric context. 
Productivity of ecosystems surrounding a city is important for supporting its activities in a sustainable way. The 
total terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is estimated to be 60 PgC y
_1
. This number shows biosphere 
potential to supply primary food energy source for all non-autotrophic species including humans.  Human 
appropriation of terrestrial net primary production is assumed to be from 8 to 15 PgC y
_1
 in total
2
 – that is, 1-2 
tC person
-1
 y
-1
. As it can be seen from the Figure 1, there are many places in the world where NPP per capita is 
less than 2.5 tC person
-1
 y
-1.
. One may only strive for a survivable development
3
  there for at this level of NPP 
per capita nothing or little remains for other non-autotrophic species. The world average level of NPP per 
capita, about 10 tC person
-1
 y
-1
, means that humans appropriate approximately 20% of NPP.  Even in the well-
populated regions of Siberia, NPP per capita exceeds the average level several times suggesting the window of 
opportunity for sustainable development.  
 
 
Figure 1.The global pattern of NPP per capita, in tC person-1 y-1 
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2 
 
Taking into account the ecological footprint
4
 of a city – the area of productive land required for supporting its 
activity in a sustainable way – implies certain limits for concentrating population on low-productive land. The 
Figure 2 shows that ecological footprints increase 10 times at low-productive lands as compared to high-
productive lands. This also implies increase in sustainable distance between cities. The distance between cities 
in the north of Siberia should be double that in the south of Siberia. 
 
The distance between cities is a serious impediment to economic development.  Spreading population centers 
over vast distances, especially in Siberia, looks like a great error of Soviet planners.  Our analysis, however, 
shows that this pattern of population distribution may stem from the low land productivity. To ensure 
sustainable development, the average distance between cities in Russia should be longer than that in USA.  
Moreover, the dominant pattern of NPP per capita (Figure 1) in Russia does not differ from that in USA, France 
and Spain: red dots (spots of survivable development) are uniformly scattered over the yellow background 
(zone of sustainable development).   
In short words, Soviet planners had a difficult choice -- to concentrate people at the level of survivable 
development, or to keep them in the cold. They chose the latter. That might be a mistake, but not an obvious 
one. Nobody knew that people were not born in Siberia could not adapt to its climate. The limits for human 
adaption to the cold
5
 were realized only in 1980s.  
The economic collapse occurred in 1990s highlighted ethnic aspect of the problem. Despite the lack of any 
incentives for staying in the areas of climatic discomfort, “siberyaki” did not migrate to warmer, more 
productive places.  The migration flows of 1920-1980 seemingly formed a vigorous ethnos which is well-
adapted to specific conditions of Siberia
6
 and numbers 20 millions. 
Figure 2.The global pattern of the urban footprint index (UFI) , in km-2 – the 
area of productive land required for supporting sustainable development of 
a locality with population of 20 000. NB: UFI may be also expressed in terms 
of distance between the cities (e.g., by taking the square root of the footprint 
area). 
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3 
 
Would “siberyaki” adapt easily to the warmer climate? This is a question for further research. Our study 
highlighted the importance of keeping wherever possible a balance between the concentration of population 
and land productivity.  It is not too late to achieve sustainable development of Siberia. 
Methods.  The gridded data on NPP per capita were derived from gridded data on normative productivity of 
the global vegetation (version 1.13)
7
 and gridded data on population of the world
8
 at half-degree resolution.   
The gridded data on UFI were calculated from the gridded data on normative productivity mentioned above 
using the equation: 𝑈𝐹𝐼 = 𝑛 × 𝑠 𝑁𝑃𝑃 , where n=20 000 is the minimal population of a locality to be named as 
city according to UN recommendation, s=10 tC person
-1 
 y
-1
 is sustainable level of NPP per capita. 
Copyright and use of materials. The Figure1 or Figure 2 can be copied and re-used in the articles or 
presentations, but only if the original source is cited in the caption as “Courtesy by Alexandrov, Inoue, 
Matsunaga (Nature Precedings, 2008)” and correct reference is added to the reference list. 
NB. This is pre-publication release of research results. Authors appreciate receiving evaluations of the 
presented results regarding their novelty and significance by December 8, 2008. The final version of the 
manuscript will be submitted to a peer-reviewed research journal by January 25, 2009. 
 
                                                                
1
 Hill, F. & Gaddy, C.G. The Siberian Curse: How communist planners left Russia out in the cold (Brooking 
Institution Press, Washington, 2003) 
2
 Imhoff, M.L. et al.  Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production. Nature 429, 870-873 
(2004) 
3
 Meadows, D.L. It is too late to achieve sustainable development, now let us strive for survivable 
development. In: Toward global planning of sustainable use of the Earth (ed. Murai, S.) 359-374 (Elsevier, 
Amsterdam, 1995) 
4
 Collins, J.P. et al. A new urban ecology. American Scientist 88, 416-425 (2000) 
5
 Prokhorov B.B. Medico-geographical information in developing new regions of Siberia (for project designing 
and planning); (Novosibirsk, Nauka, 1979, 200p.) 
6
 Moiseev, R.S., Some methodological and methodical issues of zoning Russian North. Proceedings of 
Kamchatka branch of Pacific Institute of Georgraphy (Far East Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences) 6, 36-54 
(2006) 
7
 Alexandrov, G.A. & Matsunaga, T. Normative productivity of the global vegetation. Carbon Balance and 
Management (submitted); also available at [http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/enterprise/csa/index.html], 
or on request. 
8
 Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University; International Food 
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); and World Resources Institute (WRI). Gridded Population of the World (GPW), 
Version 2. (Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University, Collins et al); available at [http://sedac.ciesin. 
columbia.edu/plue/gpw] 
 
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Biospheric context of Siberian development

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Biospheric context of Siberian development

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