Deckers, Jozef

Gebresamuel, Girmay

Girma, Atkilt

Mezgebu, Atinkut

Nyssen, Jan

Poesen, Jean

Shiferaw, Henok

Zenebe, Amanuel

English

Ghent University Academic Bibliography

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 16, EGU2014-5155, 2014EGU General Assembly 2014© Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Impact of climate change on hydrological response in the head waters ofTekeze basin, Northern EthiopiaAmanuel Zenebe (1,2), Henok Shiferaw (1), Atinkut Mezgebu (1,2), Jan Nyssen (3), Atkilt Girma (1,2,4), GirmayGebresamuel (1,2), Jozef Deckers (5), and Jean Poesen (5)(1) Institute of Climate and Society, Mekelle University, P.O.Box 231, Mekelle, Ethiopia (amanuelzenebe@gmail.com), (2)Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, P.O. Box 231, Mekelle,Ethiopia, (3) Department of Geography, Gent University, Krijgslaan 281 (S8), B 9000 Gent, Belgium, (4) University ofTwente, ITC Faculty, P.O. Box 217, NL 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands , (5) Department of Earth and EnvironmentalSciences, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3001 Heverlee, BelgiumClimate change impacts have been reported on different natural and man-made systems, including the water re-source system in different parts of the world. This study deals with the analysis of climate change impact on thehydrological response of the Agula catchment (area = ca. 700 km2) of the Tekeze basin in Northern Ethiopia.Baseline and future climate variables were generated using HADCM3 a General Circulation Model (GCM) whichis considered as the most advanced tool for estimating future climatic conditions. Two GCM-derived scenarios(HadCM3 A2a and B2a emission scenarios) were used for the climate projection, and Statistical DownscalingModel (SDSM) to downscale to the study area. Moreover, a spatially-distributed Soil Water Analysis Tool (SWAT)model was used to predict future annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) and surface runoff. The projected av-erage annual maximum air temperature (max T◦) and minimum air temperature (min T◦) for the future showsincreasing trends. For the A2a scenario an increase in min T◦ between 1.26 to 2.56 ◦C while an increase in max T◦from 1.22 to 2.20 ◦C is predicted, with lower and higher values found in 2020s and 2080s respectively. Similarly,for B2a scenario, the increase in min T◦ ranges between 1.18 ◦C in 2020 and 2.55 ◦C in 2080, and the increasein max T◦ ranges between 0.99 ◦C in 2020 to 1.81 ◦C in 2080. The scenarios developed for the years 2020-2080generally showed an increasing trend for both min T◦ and max T◦ while the result of downscaled precipitation didnot show any systematic increase or decrease in all future time horizons for both A2a and B2a scenarios thoughthere is an overall increase compared to the 1980-2011 annual precipitation (baseline). In addition, SWAT modelresults show an increasing trend in PET considering 1980-2011 annual PET (1522.31mm) as a baseline. Accord-ingly, PET increases by 4.5%, 10.1% and 14% for A2a, and by 5.7%, 10.3%, and 14.2% for B2a in 2020s, 2050sand 2080s respectively. The global warming simulated by all GCMs under A2a and B2a scenario will increasePET and hence reduce surface runoff volume by 2.8- 5.7 % for the next 90 years in both scenarios.

Impact of climate change on hydrological response in the head waters of Tekeze basin, Northern Ethiopia

https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/4414756/file/4415048

Impact of climate change on hydrological response in the head waters of Tekeze basin, Northern Ethiopia

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