Flexibility effect on the investment decision: An application to the exploration of copper

Abstract

This research evidences the value of flexibility on the investment decision, in the exploration sector of copper, face to the existence of an abandonment option. The results of three evaluation models are compared: the Net Present Value; the Binomial and a Suitable Binomial to the exploration sector of copper. Monthly quotations of copper of the LME had been used; values for the Producers Price Index; e values of OT-September with maturity nearest to the time horizon of the investment. To the similarity of other applications of the real options, we confirm that, in uncertainty context, the traditional method significantly understates the return of the investment decisions.Flexibilidade na Decisão de Investimento; Opções Reais; Sector de Exploração do Cobre; Exploração de Recursos Naturais; Métodos de Avaliação de Investimentos