A Two-Country NATREX Model for the Euro/Dollar

Abstract

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States. The NATREX approach has already been adopted to explain the medium-long term dynamics of the real exchange rate in a number of industrial countries. So far, however, it has been applied to a one-country framework where the "rest of the world" is treated as given. In this paper, we build a NATREX model where the two economies are fully specified and allowed to interact. Our theoretical model offers the basis for empirical estimation of the euro/dollar equilibrium exchange rate that will be carried out in future research. JEL classification: F31; F36; F47Key words: NATREX; equilibrium exchange rate; euro/dollar; structural approach