Real Option Games with R&D and Learning Spillovers

Abstract

We model pre-investment R&D decisions in the presence of spillover effects in an option pricing framework with analytic tractability. Two firms face two decisions that are solved for interdependently in a two-stage game. The first-stage decision is: what is the optimal level of coordination (optimal policy/technology choice)? The second-stage decision is: what is the optimal effort for a given level of the spillover effects and the cost of information acquisition? The framework is extended to a two-period stochastic game with (path-dependency inducing) switching costs that make strategy revisions harder. Strategy shifts are easier to observe in more volatile environments.Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Coordination Games; R&D