Recidivism in context: A meta-analysis of neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and repeat offending

Abstract

The relationship between macro-level concentrated disadvantage and crime is well established. Recent research has assessed whether macro-level concentrated disadvantage is similarly linked to individual-level recidivism, yielding mixed results. These equivocal results raise methodological concerns and questions as to the theoretical underpinnings of this relationship. To build consensus regarding the relation between concentrated disadvantage and recidivism, this study meta-analytically synthesized prior research (k = 32), and tested the degree to which study and sample characteristics explain variation in effects across studies. We find little support for concentrated disadvantage as a risk factor for recidivism after studies adjust for individual-level risk markers and factors (pooled log OR = 0.03, p = 0.07). We also, however, find effects vary by the age group studied and type of recidivism measured, with significant effects for juveniles and arrests/revocations. In turn, concentrated disadvantage should not be summarily dismissed as irrelevant to recidivism. Ultimately, the overrepresentation of disadvantaged neighborhoods among the justice involved—and the overrepresentation of the justice involved in disadvantaged neighborhoods—requires further research that is both empirically tenable and theoretically informative

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