OBJECTIVES: This Report intends to estimate the total number of people still alive in 2010 after cancer diagnosis in Italy, regardless of the time since diagnosis, and to project these estimates to 2015. This study is also aimed to estimate the number of already cured cancer patients, whose mortality rates have become undistinguishable from that of the general population of the same age and sex.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study took advantage of the information from the AIRTUM database, which included 29 Cancer Registries (covering 21 million people, 35% of the Italian population). A total of 1,624,533 cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2009 contributed to the study. For each registry, the observed prevalence was calculated. Prevalence for lengths of time exceeding the maximum duration of the registration and of the complete prevalence were derived by applying an estimated correction factor, the completeness index. This index was estimated by means of statistical regression models using cancer incidence and survival data available in registries with 18 years of observation or more. For 50 types or combinations of neoplasms, complete prevalence was estimated at 1.1.2010 as an absolute number and as a proportion per 100,000 inhabitants by sex, age group, area of residence, and years since diagnosis. Projections of complete prevalence for 1.1.2015 were computed under the assumption of a linear trend of the complete prevalence observed until 2010. Validated mixture cure models were used to estimate: the cure fraction, that is the proportion of patients who, starting from the time of diagnosis, are expected to reach the same mortality rate of the general population; the conditional relative survival (CRS), that is the cumulative probability of surviving some additional years, given that patients already survived a certain number of years; the time to cure, that is the number of years necessary so that conditional survival in the following five years (5-year CRS) exceeds the conventional threshold of 95% (i.e., mortality rates in cancer patients become undistinguishable compared to those of the general population); the proportion of patients already cured, i.e., people alive since a number of years exceeding time to cure.
RESULTS: As of 1.1.2010, it was estimated that 2,587,347 people were alive after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 4.4% of the Italian population. A relevant geographical heterogeneity emerged, with a prevalence above 5% in northern registries and below 4% in southern areas. Men were 45% of the total (1,154,289) and women 55% (1,433,058). In the population aged 75 years or more, the proportions of prevalent cases were 20% in males and 13% in females, 11% between 60 and 74 years of age in both sexes. Nearly 600,000 Italian women were alive after a breast cancer diagnosis (41% of all women with this neoplasm), followed by women with cancers of the colon rectum (12%), corpus uteri (7%), and thyroid (6%). In men, 26% of prevalent cases (295,624) were patients with prostate cancer, 16% with either bladder or colon rectum cancer. The projections for 1.1.2015 are of three million (3,036,741) people alive after a cancer diagnosis, 4.9% of the Italian population; with a 20% increase for males and 15% for females, compared to 2010. The cure fractions were heterogeneous according to cancer type and age. Estimates obtained as the sum of cure fractions for all cancer types showed that more than 60% of patients diagnosed below the age of 45 years will reach the same mortality rate of the general population. This proportion decreased with increasing age and it was 5 years earlier (long-term survivors). Time to cure (5-year CRS>95%) was reached in 25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Time to cure was reached by 27% (20% in men and 33% in women) of all people living after a cancer diagnosis, defined as already cured.
CONCLUSIONS: The study showed a steady increase over time (nearly +3% per year) of prevalent cases in Italy. A quarter of Italian cancer patients alive in 2010 can be considered as already cured. The AIRTUM Report 2014 describes characteristics of cancer patients and former-patients for 50 cancer types or combinations by sex and age. This detailed information promotes the conduction of studies aimed at expanding the current knowledge on the quality of life of these patients during and after the active phase of treatments (prevalence according to health status), on the long-term effects of treatments (in particular for paediatric patients), on the cost profile of cancer patients, and on rare tumours. All these observations have a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and, most of all, patients' perspective
