The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) comprising Lao-PDR, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand is experiencing economic transformations driven by growth rate shifts and policy changes, such as Free Trade Agreements. In this regard, the study utilizes the Global Trade Analysis Project Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) model to analyze economic growth and the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on the economies within this subregion. Policy changes are assessed within the context of evolving trade barriers and growth rates, including tariff rates, demographic trends, labor market evolutions, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuations. By employing multiple scenarios, this research assesses the uncertainties in future economic projections and compares these scenarios to clarify the potential economic possibilities. We compared the outcomes of the GTAP-RD model across three different sector aggregation schemes – 10, 23, and 49 sectors – to understand how sector aggregation affects economic modeling. We observed that finer sector aggregations tend to reveal more granular details of disparities.
Conversely, coarser aggregations gloss over some details but provide a general view and capture broader economic trends.journal articl
