The Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance

Abstract

This paper quantifies the potential of foreign aid as an insurance mechanism against macroeconomic shocks. Within a dynamic model of aid flows between two endowment economies, we show that at least three-fourths of the large welfare costs of macroeconomic fluctuations in poor countries could be alleviated by a simple reallocation of aid flows across time. In developing countries subject to persistent macroeconomic shocks, the resulting welfare improvement is of first-order magnitude. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund