Modeling the IMF's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account

Abstract

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and generating the aggregate discrepancy's conditional expectation. The second step is to compare this model-based forecast with the discrepancy embodied in countries' current-account forecasts. If the gap in discrepancies is below a critical value, then the discrepancy embodied in the countries' current account forecasts is not large. Otherwise, the discrepancy is large and calls for a careful reexamination of the associated current account forecasts. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund