A note on optimal stopping for possible change in the intensity of an ordinary Poisson process

Abstract

Peskir and Shiryaev [2002. Solving the Poisson disorder problem. In: Advances in Finance and Stochastics: Essays in Honor of Dieter Sonderman. Springer, New York, pp. 295-312] determined the optimal stopping rule for a problem of quick detection of a change-point in the intensity of a homogeneous ordinary Poisson process, when the cost per unit time of delayed detection is in a given range, and the change-point occurs at random times following a mixed exponential distribution. Using the same Bayesian framework, we extend their results to a range of cost values not considered before. We obtain the results by using the Dynamic Programming rather than the analytical methods used by Peskir and Shiryaev.Poisson process Markovian Arrival rate Dynamic programming Risk