Real Estate Risk and Return Expectations: Recent Survey Results

Abstract

Investment and portfolio studies generally use ex post risk and return data, although expected risk and return data is what should be used. This is probably due to the dearth of such data or the difficulty and/or cost of obtaining it on a current basis. This study reports the results of a survey of major real estate investors and researchers, i.e., large life insurance companies, real estate advisors, large pension funds, and selected academics. The survey examined investment horizon, expectations about inflation, total returns on real estate, distribution between income and appreciation returns, the volatility of real estate returns, and the correlation of real estate returns with stocks returns, bond returns, and inflation. In addition, the study contains results for the above before and after the October 19, 1987, stock market crash.