The Analysis of Real Estate Cycles, Regime Segmentation and Structural Change Using Multiple Indices (or A Multiple Index Analysis of Real Estate Cycles and Structural Change)

Abstract

This article explores real estate cycles and structural change at an overall industry level, focusing on three key questions. First, are real estate cycle stages distinct and observable? Second, can the cycle stages be modeled using variables and relationships that hold for extended periods? Third, can the impact of exogenous shocks that cause structural changes in the market be monitored and modeled? The results of the research are generally positive, suggesting that indeed the variables and relationships that distinguish various real estate cycle stages can be isolated, and are sufficiently stable to help model cyclical changes. Furthermore, the research suggests it is possible to track key exogenous shocks that trigger structural changes that affect cycle models.