Scenario Models of the World Economy

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is threefold: First it discusses the case for building an IO-based model of the world economy, second, it discusses the type and the necessary characteristics of such a model and finally it highlights a road map for its construction. In the process it argues for the following set of propositions: a) the necessity of reviving the notion of world models b) the need to take on simultaneously the social-economic and environmental challenges and their interdependence c) the suitability of the IO framework as the basis of the next generation of world models d) the importance of bringing theory to bear on the development of the model and on policy analysis e) the importance of community for the development, support and diffusion of the model and its uses f) asserting the importance of the role of IIOA in building that community g) a focus on interdisciplinarity rather than on the export of economic logic alone to the social and environmental dimensions h) the importance of a scenario-based approach and i) the need to develop and integrate the financial side along with the real side of the economy.Forecast, World Economy;Input-Output Models