For centuries, the Arctic – often referred to as the High North – has played a crucial role in Norway´s development and strategic position. Its rich fishing grounds have sustained coastal communities, while oil, gas, and mineral resources have significantly contributed to the economy. The Arctic is part of Norway´s identity, reflected in its strong connection to the sea and nature. Today, the region also constitutes Norway´s primary strategic arena. As climate change accelerates the melting of ice, new shipping lanes and widened access to Arctic resources are increasing interest in the region. Though the Arctic has been relatively stable, with some scientific cooperation persisting even during the Cold War, tensions have recently risen as actors compete over access. Most notably, Russia has intensified its presence and activity, with material implications for Norwegian security and economic interests. While the region has long been militarized, Russia´s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has fundamentally altered Norway´s perception of these military resources – that is, from being largely seen as defensive to having clear-and-present offensive potential.
This thesis explores how Norway and Norwegian private maritime actors are being affected by and responding to Russia´s evolving threat potential in the Arctic, specifically in the Barents Sea. This threat is shaped not only by Russia´s regional activity but also its increasing global aggression. The study outlines how Norway is adjusting to protect its maritime interests amid deteriorating relations with Russia, despite historically high – but variable – levels of interdependence. From the 1970s until 2014, bilateral cooperation in the Barents Sea and broader Arctic encompassed fisheries management, oil and gas extraction, and environmental protection. These ties built mutual dependency, contributing to shared stability and benefits. However, as this study will argue, this phase of cooperative interdependence has come to an end, interrupted by two significant shocks: first, Russia´s annexation of Crimea in 2014; and second, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In parallel, as this thesis will show, Russia is weaponizing its interdependence with Norway, ramping up its military activities in the Arctic, eroding trust and forcing Norway and its maritime industry to adapt to a new risk reality in its strategic backyard. It is vital to note that the increasing weaponization of interdependence has not erased all forms of cooperation, creating an ambiguous picture where enhanced militarization and rising risk of conflict are layered over areas of mutual interest where functional collaboration remains somewhat intact
