Evaluation of Tax-Revenue Forecasts in the Czech Republic (in Czech)

Abstract

The article analyzes macroeconomic forecasts of tax revenue in the Czech Republic. Forecasts are tested for their biases on data from Czech Republic from 1993 to 2003. The authors argue that Czech tax-revenue forecasts were highly biased and the hypothesis of unbiasedness could not be rejected for most of Czech taxation, excluding consumption taxes. The best-forecast quality concerned consumption taxes (VAT and excise), where the bias was about 6–7 percent. There was significant improvement in the forecast quality for personal-income tax, though little improvement elsewhere.public finance, tax revenues, revenue forecast, national budget