Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings

Abstract

This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60 % of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable. This has important implications for using measured variability to price risk and predict college attendance.earnings; unforecastable; forecastable